10 predictions for the rest of the 2024 MLB offseason | Nightengale's Notebook
PHOENIX — It has been nine weeks and four days since the Texas Rangers celebrated their first World Series championship in franchise history.
The NFL season was in Week 9, the NBA was starting its second week and Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce had just started dating.
Well, here we are now, and baseball’s hot stove season has been more frozen than Minnesota’s 10,000 Lakes (only 5.3 inches of snow this winter).
We can stop blaming Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the $1.025 billion for the hang-up.
They signed in December but there were only a handful of serious suitors involved anyways.
HOT STOVE UPDATES: MLB free agency: Ranking and tracking the top players available.
There are just five weeks remaining before spring training, and about 25 of the marquee free agents remain unsigned.
Two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell is still out there, looking for someone to pay him in excess of $200 million.
Josh Hader, the best closer in baseball the past four years, is waiting for someone to come up with $100 million over five years.
Cody Bellinger, the former MVP who had a comeback season in 2022, is wondering if anyone besides the Chicago Cubs have any serious interest.
Teams are looking for a discount, players are looking for a payday, and the closer we get to spring training, we’ll see who blinks first.
Certainly, there’s still plenty of money in the coffers considering the Los Angeles Dodgers were the only team to grab Ohtani and Yamamoto, with only four other teams dropping $100 million in free agency this winter.
Who could ever have imagined that the Kansas City Royals would outspend 24 major league teams?
Or that the Oakland A’s would have spent more in free agency than the Yankees? The Cubs would have spent $40 million on a new manager but not a nickel on their roster? The mighty AL East has spent just $79.1 million, $25.9 million less than the Royals?
Certainly, things will change at some point, but here are your up-to-date free-agent expenditures, compiled by MLB Trade Rumors, since we last saw the Rangers spraying champagne:
NL West ($1.322 billion)
- Los Angeles Dodgers: $1.043 billion
- Arizona Diamondbacks: $122 million
- San Francisco Giants: $121.25 million
- San Diego Padres: $32.5 million
- Colorado Rockies: $0
NL East ($236.65 million)
- Philadelphia Phillies: $172 million
- Atlanta: $31.1 million
- New York Mets: $29.3 million
- Washington Nationals: $4.25 million
- Miami Marlins: $0
NL Central ($232.65 million)
- Cincinnati Reds: $106.2 million
- St. Louis Cardinals: $99 million
- Pittsburgh Pirates: $16.2 million
- Milwaukee Brewers: $11.25 million
- Chicago Cubs: $0
AL Central ($180.75 million)
- Kansas City Royals: $105 million
- Detroit Tigers: $45.75 million
- Chicago White Sox: $24.3 million
- Cleveland Guardians: $4.75 million
- Minnesota Twins: $950,000
AL East ($79.1 million)
- Boston Red Sox: $39.5 million
- Toronto Blue Jays: $25.5 million
- Baltimore Orioles: $13 million
- Tampa Bay Rays: $1.1 million
- New York Yankees: $0
AL West ($71.8 million)
- Texas Rangers: $26.5 million
- Seattle Mariners: $24 million
- Houston Astros: $12 million
- Los Angeles Angels: $7.8 million
- Oakland A’s: $1.5 million
Certainly, things will start to change this week with teams and players submitting their arbitration numbers by the Jan. 12 deadline, and reality knocking on the door.
Here are our 2024 predictions with roughly five weeks until spring training camps open. (The Dodgers and San Diego Padres are reporting early with their season-opening series beginning on March 20 in Seoul, South Korea.)
1. Dodgers aren't done
The Los Angeles Dodgers, after dropping $1.043 billion, aren’t stopping now. They get another corner outfield bat. Hello, Teoscar Hernandez? If Hader is still on the market in a month, and they can grab him for less than the five-year contract in excess of $100 million he’s seeking, they’ll seize the opportunity and sign him, too. Yes, they are all-in, scaring the daylights out of everyone in baseball.
2. Mets won't make a splash
The New York Mets, after spending a record $374.7 million on their payroll last season, will not sign a marquee free agent the rest of the winter and will put All-Star first baseman Pete Alonso on the trade block in July.
Money may bring happiness in the real world, but Mets owner Steve Cohen rudely discovered it can bring on misery in baseball. Cohen could have hired anyone to write checks, but hired president David Stearns as president of baseball operations in an attempt to make the Mets the Dodgers of the East.
3. Blake Snell will wait into spring training
Blake Snell will still be a free agent when spring training hits with teams continuing to balk at his asking price in excess of $200 million. The Los Angeles Angels are the strongest suitor at this juncture.
Snell was the most dominant pitcher in the National League last season, yielding a stunning 1.20 ERA the last 22 starts of the season, so you would think that just about everyone in baseball would want him? Uh-uh. Teams are wary of him because of the fact he pitched past six innings only three times last year, and has never pitched eight innings in any of his 191 career starts. Large-market teams openly question whether he could handle the pressure and scrutiny of pitching in their city. There’s a reason why the Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees and Mets have shied away, at least for now. Snell, 31, could fall right into the Angels’ laps.
4. Cubs will make some big moves
The Cubs, who haven’t had a free-agent signing or made a trade all winter, will be baseball’s most aggressive team these next five weeks. They will not only re-sign Bellinger, with no one else expressing strong interest, but could bring in third baseman Matt Chapman or first baseman Rhys Hoskins, too, along with another starter. Their offseason is just starting.
5. Yankees will add another arm
The New York Yankees will sign or trade for another marquee starter before opening day. After acquiring Juan Soto for only one year, they have already shown they are all in. This means they could overpay, at some point, for Dylan Cease, although they’re balking at the price. The Yankees also have had discussions for Jesus Luzardo of the Marlins and Shane Bieber of the Guardians. They could even jump into the Hader marketplace. But the Yankees will spend, trade and do everything possible to assure they are playing deep into October.
6. Rangers will bring back Jordan Montgomery
The Texas Rangers, who have been wary of spending with the uncertainty of their TV contract, will re-sign Jordan Montgomery. Simply, he’s too valuable not to bring back for an encore. He produced a 2.90 ERA in six starts during their World Series run, and they have a shiny new trophy for their reward. Montgomery is also being sought by the Yankees, but his preference all along was returning to Texas.
7. Dylan Cease will stay put
The Chicago White Sox will open spring training with Dylan Cease, and could even carry him until the July trade deadline. They have had serious trade discussions with about a half-dozen teams, currently including the Yankees and Orioles, but no one has stepped up and is willing to offer a package of at least two top-100 prospects and two other players. The White Sox can afford to be patient. There’s no pressure to move him now.
8. Matt Chapman won't return to Toronto
The Toronto Blue Jays will pass on third baseman Matt Chapman, will let the Cubs sign Cody Bellinger without putting up much of a fight, and will instead sign free-agent outfielder Joc Pederson to a one-year contract to be the left-handed bat they need. Certainly, they have plenty of money after Ohtani didn’t take their $700 million, spending only $25.5 million this winter on Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Kevin Kiermaier.
9. Padres will stay quiet
The San Diego Padres’ wild spending days are over. They don’t offer anyone more than $5 million a year the rest of the winter, trying to spread out the remaining $20 million in their budget to fill about six different positions. Their World Series aspirations have melted into the goal of merely qualifying as a wild-card contender.
10. Phillies will focus on what they've got
The Philadelphia Phillies will do everything possible to sign ace Zack Wheeler to an extension before opening day, and likely Bryce Harper, too. Yet, they will not make an offer to free agents Blake Snell or Josh Hader, believing that neither fit into their team. They will sit relatively pat, at least until the July 30 trade deadline, and then vow to do everything to end their World Series drought.
LaTroy Hawkins, Jacque Jones launch a podcast
They arrived in professional baseball in the '90s before social media, and even before the advent of Google, when the only available answers were provided through experience and asking questions.
They are done playing baseball, but they see the pitfalls young athletes face that can tarnish careers and ruin lives, while the trust between the media and athletes continues to deteriorate.
Jacque Jones and LaTroy Hawkins, best of friends from their 6 ½ years together with the Minnesota Twins, don’t pretend to have all of the answers, but they’re dishing out advice and sharing knowledge as much as they can.
They have launched a weekly podcast, “Thick Skin with Jacque and Hawk,” produced by Next Chapter Podcasts CEO Jeremiah Tittle, who came up with the nickname.
The podcast was Jones’ idea, and Hawkins, special assistant with the Twins and a TV analyst and commentator with the organization, didn’t hesitate.
“The media and society always seem to focus on athletes when they get in trouble, but never when they do good things,’’ Jones said. ’’I remember the Damar Hamlin situation. When this guy got hurt on the field, he had a foundation started, but had only a couple of thousand dollars in it. He gets hurt, and it goes up to $10 million. Nobody supported it until something catastrophic happened to him.
“Nobody talks about the good things that guys do. It’s all about who can have the hottest take, who can say the craziest thing, that’s what drives shows now."
Jones, 48, and Hawkins, 51, also want the media to take notice – and not always believe the organization’s spin.
“Sometimes when the media gets it wrong, we can correct them. Look, I’m an advocate for the media. I’m on TV with the Twins. But sometimes we get it wrong. Nobody is perfect."
Hawkins believes there should be classes about the power of social media in high school, if not junior high.
“We have to educate people about social media and how to use it to your advantage,’’ Hawkins said. “You’ve got to be so careful."
Hawkins and Jones will continue to share their own experiences and talk about the importance of education, too, with Jones returning to the University of Southern California for 1½ years to finish his degree, and with Hawkins now taking online classes for his college degree.
“I want to showcase my personality and my ability, too," Hawkins said. "I have aspirations to work in the front office and people will have a chance to hear me speak on another level.’’
Around the basepaths
– The Chicago White Sox have recently spoken to the Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and the Los Angeles Dodgers, but they are not close to trading ace Dylan Cease. They’re still holding out for two premium prospects and two others in return. If the White Sox don’t get what they want, they’ll hold onto him until they do.
– The San Francisco Giants are still open to adding another starter after acquiring Robbie Ray from Seattle, but unless Blake Snell’s price tag dramatically drops, they’re not interested in the defending Cy Young winner.
– Atlanta GM Alex Anthopoulos worked his magic once again by acquiring one year of Chris Sale from the Boston Red Sox, and turning it into three years of control with Sale signing a two-year, $38 million contract with an $18 million club option in 2026. Really, the total cost is just $21 million with the Red Sox also sending $17 million to Atlanta for Vaughn Grissom, who had no position available to him in Atlanta.
If Sale stays healthy, it will be a steal. Remember when Atlanta signed Charlie Morton at the age of 37? Well, three years later, he’s still pitching for Atlanta.
Sale, one of the fiercest competitors in baseball, also is expected to provide valuable veteran leadership for the young rotation.
Sure, there’s risk involved, but they preferred this alternative to giving up prized prospects for Tyler Glasnow and weren’t willing to outbid the Phillies for Aaron Nola (seven years, $172 million).
If Sale is healthy in October, look out.
– The White Sox are shuffling their front-office staff and are bringing in Jin Wong from the Kansas City Royals to be an assistant GM. White Sox assistant GM Jeremy Haber is expected to depart on his own before spring training, with Jin fulfilling part of his duties.
– Hall of Fame president Josh Rawitch spoke to Andre Dawson and has informed him that his request to change his plaque to have him wearing a Cubs cap instead of representing the Montreal Expos will be reviewed by the Hall’s Board of Directors in March.
It’s highly unlikely, however, the Board will permit him to make a change, fearing it would open a wave of other changes.
Dawson, meanwhile, is recovering from a recent hip replacement surgery after undergoing three knee replacement surgeries.
– Farhan Zaidi, San Francisco Giants president of baseball operations, is scheduled to meet with future Hall of Fame manager Dusty Baker in the next week to discuss a front-office position.
– The Texas Rangers and Houston Astros are the two leading candidates to host the finals of the 2026 World Baseball Classic. MLB is strongly leaning towards having the event in the Central Time Zone with retractable roof ballparks.
– While Trevor Bauer has begun a national media tour in hopes of pitching again in the major leagues after a 2 ½-year absence, it's worth remembering that if he had shown even some level of remorse in his meeting with Dodgers officials in January 2023, the Dodgers likely would not have released him. Instead, they paid him $22.5 million to go away.
– Teams now believe that the Milwaukee Brewers will not trade ace Corbin Burnes, and plan to revisit their position at the All-Star break.
– The Dodgers will be paying Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto only a combined $7 million in actual salary in 2024, $12 million in 2025 and $14 million in 2026.
Ohtani deferred $680 million in salary while Yamamoto’s contract is slightly backloaded, although he will receive a $50 million signing bonus this year.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, protected themselves with Yamamoto. He can opt out of his contract after the 2029 and 2031 seasons, but if he undergoes Tommy John surgery or misses at least 134 consecutive days with right elbow problems, he can not opt out until after the 2031 and 2033 seasons.
Yamamoto also has a provision in the contract that would enable him to opt out of his deal after any season if the Dodgers trade him.
– No one has more power in the remaining free-agent market than agent Scott Boras.
He represents stars Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, J.D. Martinez and Rhys Hoskins, among others.
– Japanese pitching star Shōta Imanaga has four teams seriously bidding for his services with a Thursday deadline, including the Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs.
– Free-agent starter Marcus Stroman has informed the Yankees he’s seriously interested in signing with them, but the Yankees have declined to make an offer.
– The Cincinnati Reds say they’re done with their big expenditures and don’t expect to make any major trades, believing the team they’ve assembled could be their best since 2014.
– The Boston Red Sox are telling teams that All-Star closer Kenley Jansen, who’s scheduled to earn $16 million, is available. They also are open to listening on offers for outfielder Masataka Yoshida, who has four years and $72 million remaining on his contract.
– Kudos and happy retirement to Michael Brantley, who thanked Larry Pardo, the former Milwaukee Brewers scout, for believing in him and drafting him in 2005. Brantley was traded three years later to Cleveland in the CC Sabathia deal.
– Happy 80th birthday to beloved Charlie Manuel, who is recovering from his stroke and hopes to be at the Phillies’ spring-training camp as their senior advisor.
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