Which NBA teams could be headed for the postseason via play-in tournament games?
A theory exists – a common one, too – that teams in the NBA’s Western Conference are avoiding the No. 1 seed so they don’t have to play the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round of the playoffs.
That’s understandable, too, when a team features LeBron James and Anthony Davis, both of whom have titles and playoff experience, especially James. And James has long expressed his indifference to having home-court advantage. He’s won when his team has had home court and won when his team hasn’t. Doesn’t matter to him where the games are. It’s almost always necessary to win a game on the road anyway.
And last season, as the No. 7 seed, the Lakers beat second-seeded Memphis in the first round and sixth-seeded Golden State in the second round before losing 4-0 to Denver in the conference finals.
The concern among teams near the top of the West standing is not unfounded.
However, as it stands today, the ninth-place Lakers are in the play-in game and will need to win two games just to get the No. 8 seed in the West.
Also, against the three teams vying for the top seed (Oklahoma City, Minnesota and Denver), the Lakers are 2-7 this season and 2-9 against Denver over the past two seasons, including eight consecutive losses.
Let’s take a closer look at the postseason play-in game scenarios, which involves teams 7-10 after the regular season is over, in the East and West. For the sake of this exercise, we are going to look at teams within four games of the play-in spots. (Records are through March 19 games.)
How does the NBA play-in game format for work?
The play-in game format involves the Nos. 7-10 seeds in the East and West. The No. 7 and No. 8 seeds will play each other, and the winner earns the No. 7 seed in the playoffs. The loser of that game will play the winner the 9-10 game with that winner getting the eighth seed in the playoffs. Teams in seventh and eighth place need to win just once in the play-in game to reach the playoffs, and the 9-10 teams need to win two games to make the playoffs.
Eastern Conference play-in game outlook
4. New York Knicks (41-27)
The Knicks are in fourth place, trying to fight off Orlando for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. They are also just two games behind third-place Cleveland. The Knicks have managed injuries to Julius Randle and OG Anunoby. Their schedule isn’t too brutal though tough games remain. But they have played well enough since the All-Star break to maintain a top-six spot and avoid the play-in game.
5. Orlando Magic (41-28)
The Magic can catch the Knicks in the standings but also fall into the play-in game. They are also playing well since the end of February, and they are in the early part of a seven-game homestand before closing the season with five of seven games on the road. The body of work from the young and growing Magic suggests they will win enough games to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
6. Philadelphia 76ers (38-30)
Without injured Joel Embiid, Philadelphia is straddling the play-in game line. Today, they are in sixth place. Tomorrow, it could be seventh. It’s a fluid situation, but it looks like the 76ers, Indiana and Miami are the three teams trying to finish in sixth place and stay out of the play-in game. Philadelphia, struggling offensively without Embiid, is a ½ game ahead of Indiana and one game ahead of Miami for the No. 6 seed.
7. Indiana Pacers (38-31)
A slight drop in offensive production has been mitigated by better defense since the All-Star break. A five-game road trip beginning Wednesday against four teams headed for the postseason followed by a home game against the Lakers will reveal plenty about where the Pacers are headed.
8. Miami Heat (37-31)
The Heat’s up-and-down season makes it difficult to get a read on them. They lose games they’re not supposed to lose, and win games they’re not supposed to win. Winning streaks follow losing streaks which follow winning streaks. Closing out the season with four games against teams whose postseason fate may be solidified could help Miami.
9. Chicago Bulls (34-35)
The Bulls probably can’t hurdle three teams and make up 4½ games in the standings to reach sixth place, and even getting to eighth place (3½ games behind Miami) has roadblocks.
10. Atlanta Hawks (30-38)
Atlanta is eight games under .500, and with no Trae Young (left hand injury) and a remaining schedule that includes Boston (twice), Denver, Milwaukee and Minnesota, the Hawks are headed for a 10th-place finish.
Western Conference play-in game outlook
4. Los Angeles Clippers (42-25)
Three weeks ago, the Clippers were tied for third place with Denver and just two games behind first-place Minnesota. Now, they’re five games behind first-place Oklahoma City and 4½ games behind Denver and Minnesota. They probably won’t fall into a play-in game but New Orleans is charging up the standings and fourth-place is no longer a guarantee for the Clippers.
5. New Orleans Pelicans (42-26)
With a tough remaining schedule, the fifth-place Pelicans will have to earn a guaranteed first-round playoff spot. They have a two-game lead over Sacramento and a 2½-game lead over Dallas and Phoenix.
6. Sacramento Kings (39-28)
The Kings have been in and out of the play-in game scenario and are battling Dallas and Phoenix for the sixth spot. They have two games against Dallas and one against Phoenix plus important games against other postseason-bound teams.
7. Dallas Mavericks (40-29)
While the Mavericks have a few tough games left, they also have the 29th easiest remaining schedule according to tankathon.com, including games against Washington, Detroit, Charlotte and Portland.
8. Phoenix Suns (39-29)
The schedule-maker didn’t do the Suns any favors: They finish the season with nine games against teams either going to the playoffs or the play-in game, including two against the Clippers, two against the Pelicans and two against the Timberwolves.
9. Los Angeles Lakers (37-32)
Given Phoenix’s schedule, the Lakers would like to move into the eighth spot so they don’t have to win two play-in games just to reach the playoffs. The Lakers have a favorable six-game road trip with just two games against postseason teams so there is a window for the Lakers to move out of the 9-10 game.
10. Golden State Warriors (35-32)
The remaining schedule isn’t brutal for the Warriors, and like the Lakers, they would like to get into the eighth spot. At 3½ games behind No. 8 Phoenix, the Warriors need wins and help. It’s looking like a Lakers-Warriors matchup in the 9-10 game with the loser eliminated from the postseason.
11. Houston Rockets (33-35)
Two weeks ago, the Rockets were counted out of the play-in game. But a six-game winning streak – with the possibility of extending it to nine with their next three games against Chicago, Utah and Portland – keeps the them in the conversation.
