Men's March Madness bubble winners and losers: Wake Forest picks up major tournament boost

For much of the past month, Wake Forest has been fighting an uphill battle to get itself into a projected NCAA Tournament spot.

After Saturday, the Demon Deacons very well could be slated into the field after picking up a major upset victory over surging Duke – and most importantly – getting a much desired Quad 1 victory.

Wake Forest entered the weekend one of the first four teams out of the most recent USA TODAY Sports Bracketology prediction, and was coming off an epic beatdown of fellow ACC bubble team in Pittsburgh. Against the Blue Devils, Wake Forest had a hot second half where it made 16 of 23 shots (69.6%) in front of a record crowd at Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum. Guard Hunter Sallis also had a big day with 29 points on 11 of 13 shots, including the game-clinching free throws in the final seconds. 

The lack of big wins has largely been the reason why the Demon Deacons have been flying under the radar for much of the season, but what’s kept them lurking is they have no bad loss. The recent emergence of Florida, a team Wake Forest beat in November, resulted in that win becoming the lone Quad 1 victory for the team this season. After Saturday, Wake Forest is now 2-5 in Quad 1 games while having the fourth-best NET ranking in the ACC at 27. If there’s any more reason to give Steve Forbes’ squad credit for what it’s done this season, look no further than the team it just beat.

"They're not respected the way they should be nationally," Duke head coach John Scheyer said postgame.

The Demon Deacons are in position to make the tournament for the first time since 2017, and that’s why they lead the winners and losers on the bubble on the final Saturday of February.

WINNERS

Seton Hall

After spending time just on the outside of the projected field, Seton Hall bypassed the First Four by moving into the 11-seed spot, and they’ll keep a spot after another win against a fellow bubble team in Butler.

Dre Davis was a machine with 21 points and seven rebounds for the Pirates, who have now won three consecutive games. What’s big is Seton Hall is only half a game out of second place in the Big East. 

The upcoming week will be the biggest of the year for Shaheen Holloway’s team, which has to go on the road to face Creighton and Connecticut. No easy ask for any team in the country.

Mississippi State

If there is a team playing itsefl out of the bubble and into a tournament lock, it’s Mississippi State. The Bulldogs rattled off their fifth consecutive win by beating a pesky LSU team by 20 points. After a timid performance in the win against Ole Miss, freshman guard Josh Hubbard went off with a career-high 32 points that included six made 3-pointers.

The case could be made that the win streak is not as big as it could be, given none of them were Quad 1 victories, but Mississippi State will get its biggest test of the season in the next two weeks with three Quad 1 games in a row against Kentucky, Auburn and Texas A&M.

Colorado

The Pac-12 is certain to have two bids in Arizona and Washington State, and Colorado will take the lead for a potential third spot after a blowout win over Utah.

The Buffaloes had been shaky in recent weeks, but the double overtime win over Southern California last week might give Colorado a run toward a tournament spot. Against Utah, Colorado lit it up behind the arc with 10 made 3-pointers in the 89-65 victory.

Colorado entered the weekend as one of the next four teams to miss the tournament, so the win won’t propel them astronomically up the bubble, but getting the win over the rival gives them the upper hand as of now. Colorado likely needs to win out to be worthy of a spot, but it’s not out of the realm with the only Quad 1 opponent left being Oregon in two weeks.

LOSERS

Cincinnati

The freefall in Cincinnati continues for the Bearcats, who are now barely clinging to staying in the hunt for a tournament spot. Cincinnati had another chance to pick up a Quad 1 win at TCU, but it fell apart in the second half en route to an 18-point loss. 

It’s getting harder to defend the Bearcats as a tournament team, as they’ve now lost four of their last five games, which includes a Quad 3 loss to Big 12 cellar dweller in West Virginia. Cincinnati is also 5-9 in a loaded Big 12 conference, tied for 11th in the standings. Very quickly, Cincinnati has gone from one of the last four teams to make the projected field to being among one of the first squads to miss the tournament, and it’s justifiable to move them even further out of the picture after its recent play. The NET ranking for the Bearcats has also dropped from 38 to 45 in just one week.

There’s still a slim path for Cincinnati to stay in the field, but it’s going to take a Herculean effort to keep it alive with the next game being a visit to NET team No. 1 Houston. 

Mississippi

College basketball fans are quickly learning how misleading that perfect 13-0 start to the season was for Mississippi.

The Rebels have felt the wrath of the SEC in recent weeks, with the latest result being a 13-point home loss to a struggling South Carolina team. It capped off what was a disappointing week after falling on the road to rival Mississippi State, a team it beat less than a month ago. It’s been part of a recent skid where Ole Miss has lost five of its last six games.

Granted four of those five losses came against Quad 1 opponents, but they’ve all been games the Rebels have needed to boost what has been a lackluster résumé. Of all bubble teams, Ole Miss has the worst NET ranking at 68, something the selection committee will highly consider when there will be several automatic qualifiers with worse NET rankings securing spots. Another Quad 1 opportunity is on the horizon with Alabama coming to Oxford, as it’s becoming do-or-die time for Ole Miss.

Villanova

It’s hard to really criticize a team playing on the road against the top team in the country, but when you’re as shaky of a team as Villanova, wins are necessary even against the mightiest of opponents. 

Connecticut had no issues with the Wildcats, securing a 24-point win over the visiting team. Villanova had picked up some steam recently, entering Saturday on a three-game winning streak with some of those victories coming against other bubble teams like Seton Hall and Butler. But Saturday’s loss made it seven straight defeats against Quad 1 opponents, and those are games the Wildcats need to grab to help offset the less than ideal 2-3 Quad 3 record. 

The high NET ranking of 34 is keeping Villanova alive, with it being the fourth best spot in the Big East. There are plenty Quad 1 games left for the Wildcats to win, but they’ll need to turn in better results if Villanova wants to get back in the tournament.

Texas A&M

What is going on in College Station?

Two weeks ago, Texas A&M handled Tennessee at home and was poised for a tournament spot.

They haven’t won since, and the Aggies are in real danger of falling into First Four contention and possibly out of the field entirely. The Volunteers exacted revenge Saturday with a dominant 35-point victory in a game where Texas A&M was out of it early.

During this four-game skid, Texas A&M has losses to Vanderbilt and Arkansas, not the type of defeats the selection committee will take kindly, especially when the Quad 3 record is 2-4. Wednesday’s game against South Carolina is nearing must-win territory. 

Bubble game losers

Saturday games were wasted opportunities for Butler and Utah to leapfrog other bubble teams in the crowded area, and it’ll likely result in them falling out of the projected field as of now and make it an even tougher hill to climb.

Butler is going downhill rapidly with four consecutive losses, and it’s hard to justify a team sitting just ahead of Georgetown and DePaul in the Big East standings being in the NCAA Tournament. With a 4-11 Quad 1 record, the Bulldogs don’t have any remaining opportunities to improve that all-important record. 

Utah could only hope to forget about its disaster of a performance against Colorado as it has lost four of its last five games, including bad losses to Arizona State and Southern California − and salvaged only by a last-second victory over UCLA. It’ll be tough to improve the résumé for the rest of the regular season when three of the last four games are against Quad 3 teams.