NFL begins post-Tom Brady era, but league's TV dominance might only grow stronger
Whether Tom Brady is the greatest player in NFL history is a subject for the talking heads. What is not up for debate is that his longevity – this will be the first season this millennium without Brady on an active roster – combined with his on-field success and off-field celebrity made him a star unlike any other.
Instead of bracing itself for a decline in viewership and interest as Brady enters retirement, the NFL – which accounted for 82 of the top 100 television broadcasts in 2022, according to a Sportico study – is preparing for the opposite, thanks to a stable of young star quarterbacks and an abundance of storylines ahead of the 2023 campaign.
"This is probably the only sport that we’re in business with where the greatest player of all time can retire and you don’t even think twice about it," Fox Sports president, insight and analytics, Michael Mulvihill told USA TODAY Sports.
Brady was a historic player, a sixth-round pick in 2000 who went on win seven Super Bowls, earn four MVPs and secure a number of passing records.
"Tom was such a special story and part of this league for so long," NFL vice president of media Brian Rolapp said. "That’s not a common story. Having said that … I don’t think we’ve ever been so excited about how many stars we have in the league."
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And most of them play quarterback. The obvious successor to Brady as face of the league is Kansas City Chiefs signal-caller Patrick Mahomes, who will turn 28 next Sunday.
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, 25, finished second to Mahomes in MVP voting last season. Other standout signal-callers include Joe Burrow (26), Josh Allen (27), Justin Herbert (25), Lamar Jackson (26) and Trevor Lawrence (23).
"There are a lot of quarterbacks in the limelight," CBS Sports analyst and former Raiders CEO Amy Trask told USA TODAY Sports. "The attention is spread."
Aaron Rodgers doesn't fit into the category of youthful signal-callers, but the 39-year-old's offseason trade to the New York Jets has heightened expectations in the nation's largest market. Rolapp said the interest in the Jets is reflected in the league's schedule, which gave the Jets a maximum six prime-time games, including the inaugural Black Friday game against the Miami Dolphins.
"You think about this league and the stars, it’s good news if they come and they go," Rolapp said. "We have amazing stars and it’s sad to see them go when they go, but we also have great young stars who step right into the spotlight."
ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky said he's not sure if the NFL, as an on-field product, has ever been this good. As many as 10 quarterbacks could be reasonable bets to win MVP, said Orlovsky, the former NFL quarterback from 2005-16.
"As much as Tom was a superstar, and as incredible he was, being the best football player ever, how much he generated – the NFL is loaded at quarterback right now," Orlovsky said. "And they’re young. And they’re talented. They’ve got personality. There’s diversity."
There will be moments where it does feel weird without Brady, Orlovsky said.
"But the quarterback play is going to be so off the charts," he added.
No position in sports drives viewership more than quarterback, Mulvihill said.
"That’s only become more true as so many more quarterbacks are a dual run-pass threat," Mulvihill said. "It makes every play more dramatic and more exciting.
"It gives you a lot of comfort that you can absorb that loss of Tom Brady and be as strong as ever."
Over the past three seasons, with Brady playing in the NFC as a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, FOX had access to more Brady games than ever (FOX has typically carried NFC games, while CBS has taken Sunday AFC contests). During that time, the network's strategy was reduced to an acronym "ABC."
- A, for Rodgers, Aaron
- B, for Brady, Tom
- and C for Cowboys, Dallas
In 2023, FOX will lean even further into the Cowboys and also invest more in the Eagles and Los Angeles Rams, Mulvihill said. With highly populated cities such as New York, Philadelphia, Dallas, Los Angeles and Chicago under their umbrella, "we're never going to be super-reliant on one player or a small number of players," Mulvihill said.
The post-Brady transition will also be easier for networks and league executives to digest compared to the retirement of a Brady contemporary and arguably his biggest individual rival, Peyton Manning, in 2016. At the time, the top talent at quarterback was not as robust as it is now, and the old guard of Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Joe Flacco and Eli Manning were entering their twilight years.
"There were great quarterbacks," Trask said. "But it wasn’t at the start of their careers."
The Manning retirement impact was felt more on the AFC broadcasting side, Mulvihill said, but it existed.
"It's easier to absorb that change now than there was then," he said.
Trask doubts that there will be another figure to achieve Brady-like fame.
"Brady was in a league of his own," Trask said.
So is the NFL. And it's why even without the longtime marquee attraction in Brady, those within the league feel OK.
"There’s a lot to talk about," Rolapp said. "We’re pretty excited about the young stars we have. I think the impact on the ratings will be positive. I think people will tune in to see that."
