Bold fantasy football predictions for 2024: Rashee Rice and other league-winning players
Have you ever topped off your coffee with a squirt of mayonnaise? Neither have I. But it’s certainly bold.
Nailing a fantasy football draft often calls for making bold choices. It might require swallowing the football equivalent of a mayo-in-coffee combo to get a much-needed boost.
In this piece, I’ll offer up some bold fantasy football predictions. Think of it like a mouth-watering bowl of chili – it’s better with a kick, but spiciness is not the essence. It just enhances the flavor. A bold prediction can enhance the flavor of a take, but the essence is the insights that can help land league-winning players.
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Now grab a cup of mayo-enriched coffee and enjoy my boldest 2024 fantasy football predictions for every position.
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Fantasy football bold predictions for 2024
Rams punt returner Kyren Williams will be a top-5 running back
Since 2019, there have been just seven instances where a running back has played at least 12 games and averaged more than 19.5 half-PPR points – Christian McCaffrey in 2019 and 2023, Derrick Henry in 2020, Alvin Kamara in 2020, Dalvin Cook in 2020, Jonathan Taylor in 2021, and Kyren Williams in 2023.
That’s some pretty good company for the 24-year-old Williams.
In fact, 24 backs have reached those thresholds over the last two decades, and only one (David Johnson) failed to post multiple top-five seasons in their careers.
Yes, the Rams did draft Blake Corum in the third round of the 2024 NFL draft. Guess what? The Jets selected Braelon Allen one round later and Breece Hall is coming off boards as the RB2. Saquon Barkley is moving to an offense with the most effective goal-line rusher in the league and he’s the RB5 in Average Draft Position (ADP). Jahmyr Gibbs is in a literal timeshare and he’s the RB6.
The Los Angeles backfield totaled 462 touches last year. At that rate, even if they went with a 65/35 split, that would equate to 300 touches for Williams (a 16% increase on his 2023 workload).
Yes, Sean McVay naming him the team’s primary punt returner adds an uncomfortable element of injury risk. However, it is worth noting that Cooper Kupp was the team’s primary punt returner in 2021, and he posted the most single-season PPR points by a receiver in history. And of his 21 “returns”, 20 were fair catches.
Kyren should eat.
Cowboys’ Jake Ferguson will finish as a top-3 tight end
When Jerry Jones said the Cowboys will be “all in” this offseason, he really meant it.
So far, Dallas has signed linebacker Eric Kendricks, running back Ezekiel Elliott, and running back Dalvin Cook.
This team will be an absolute powerhouse in 2019.
(That was sarcasm, in case you couldn’t tell.)
For a team that got pulverized in their NFC Divisional matchup, Dallas’ lackluster offseason (I’m being nice) was certainly a head-scratcher. It does mean, however, that some of their in-house players will need to take on larger roles. One of those players is Jake Ferguson.
The Wisconsin product already took on a larger role after the bye last season. In six games before the bye, he averaged 22.8 routes run and 4.8 targets per contest. In the 12 games following the bye (including the playoff loss), his per-game averages jumped to 35.7 routes run and 7.1 targets. The result? A line of 60 receptions, 664 yards, and 7 scores. Extrapolated to 17 games, that’s 196.1 half-PPR points. Last year’s top tight end, Sam Laporta, totaled 196.3 points.
Touchdown regression is not something we need to be too concerned about. Ferguson led all tight ends in red zone targets in 2023, including a league-leading nine targets inside the five-yard line.
Chiefs’ Rashee Rice will finish as a top-10 wide receiver
Kansas City Chiefs wideout Rashee Rice might be the wildcard of the 2024 fantasy season.
The 24-year-old is facing extensive legal troubles and is almost a sure bet to be suspended, but the closer to the season we get, the more likely it is that his suspension won’t come this season. It’s why his ADP has risen nearly a full round over the last month (and will continue to rise). That said, he’s still coming off the board in the 60s, which makes him a prime value pick, and it also lessens the risk if he does get suspended in 2024.
Rice experienced a very real post-bye rookie bump last year. In nine games before the bye, he averaged 17.4 routes, 4.6 targets, and 1.1 red zone targets. Following the bye, those averages jumped to 30.7 routes, 8.7 targets, and 1.7 red zone targets over seven games.
Over that post-bye stretch, he posted a 17-game pace of 114 receptions, 1,360 yards, 7 tuddies, and 235 half-PPR points. Only seven wideouts put up better lines in 2023.
Cardinals’ Kyler Murray will be the overall QB1
I listed Kyler Murray as one of my five favorite value plays this season. You should read the article; my mom says it’s “amazeballs” (her words, not mine).
As I outlined in that article, you want an elite quarterback on your fantasy roster. A huge chunk of championship teams in 2023 had elite signal-callers. Kyler can be that guy and his ADP is in the 60s.
Due to his rushing ability, the 27-year-old’s floor is among the highest at the position. Since his rookie season, he’s finished top-eight in points per game every year, including twice inside the top four. The presence of Marvin Harrison Jr. elevates his ceiling to a level we haven’t seen in full since 2020.
In 28 career games with DeAndre Hopkins in the fold from start to finish, Kyler averaged 260.3 yards and 1.9 touchdowns through the air, 44.4 yards and .61 scores on the ground, and .97 turnovers, for a total of 25.1 fantasy points per game. Last season, Josh Allen led the position with a 24.2 per-game average.
MHJ might not be at Hopkins’ level yet, but he is a vast upgrade over Hollywood Brown. Kyler will undoubtedly enjoy his new toy.
