The stage is set for a madcap second half of the regular season.
There are 22 Bowl Subdivision teams still unbeaten heading into October after one of the most entertaining, what-the-heck-just-happened opening months in recent memory.
The list of undefeated teams include the expected Power Five powerhouses − Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State and more − with a healthy dose of the unexpected, including Missouri, Washington State and even Texas.
But all good things come to an end. The question as we turn toward the second month of the season: When will these nearly two dozen unbeatens finally lose? Here's our best guess.
First loss: Sometime in January. (Maybe.)
Despite a sputtering start and several tough games ahead, the Bulldogs remain the team to beat in a surprisingly disappointing SEC. That raises the odds that Georgia's first loss doesn't come until the College Football Playoff, if the defeat comes at all.
First loss: Again, sometime in January. (Maybe.)
Michigan steamrolled through September while playing like the best team in college football. At this point, the Wolverines have to be favored to run the table in Big Ten play for the second year in a row.
First loss: at Michigan, Nov. 25.
Ohio State may very well be the best team in the country by the final Saturday of November. But it's hard to forget what Michigan has done in this series the past two years; with this one back in Ann Arbor, here's guessing the Wolverines push the winning streak to three.
First loss: vs. Kansas State, Nov. 14.
While Kansas State has dropped six in a row in this series after capturing seven of the previous nine, five of those losses have come by a single possession. Let's say the Wildcats score the upset without derailing the Longhorns' push for the playoff, which has been buoyed enormously by the non-conference win against Alabama.
First loss: vs. Miami, Nov. 11.
FSU is clearly good enough to go unbeaten in ACC play, but a recent close call with Boston College shows the Seminoles' smaller room for error compared to the other top teams in the US LBM AFCA Coaches Poll. Here's guessing Miami steps up and scores the rivalry win in November, even with the game coming in Tallahassee.
First loss: at Ohio State, Oct. 21.
It would be ridiculous to say that Penn State can't beat Ohio State and Michigan to run the table in the regular season for the first time since 1994. But the Nittany Lions have topped the Buckeyes in the Shoe just twice in 14 tries since joining the Big Ten, so history isn't on their side.
First loss: at Notre Dame, Oct. 14.
Based on the Trojans' latest defensive collapse in last weekend's close win against Colorado, the first loss could come Saturday against Arizona. Notre Dame has the defense and playing style to get USC outside its comfort zone and win an ugly one.
First loss: vs. Oregon, Oct. 14.
Washington has intense offensive firepower but could run into trouble against Oregon's physical play. The Huskies did put 522 yards on 9.2 yards per play in last year's 37-34 win, but the Ducks look noticeably improved from a season ago.
First loss: at Utah, Oct. 28.
Escaping the brutally good Pac-12 without a loss seems like an impossibility. Utah represents the last of three games in a row against ranked competition, following matchups against Washington and Washington State, and the Ducks might be worn out by this point and ripe for a borderline upset.
First loss: vs. Texas (in Dallas), Saturday (noon ET, ABC).
Oklahoma has started to grasp Brent Venables' defensive scheme and are beginning to improve offensively, as seen in last week's destruction of Iowa State. But Texas provides a much more difficult test than what the Sooners saw in September.
First loss: vs. Miami, Oct. 14.
The first loss might come as soon as Saturday against Syracuse (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), and if not against the Hurricanes a week later then in a road trip to Clemson on Nov. 18. The Tar Heels are very good, especially with Drake Maye in control on offense, but this does not resemble a team that will be able to escape the regular season with fewer than two losses.
First loss: at UCLA, Saturday (3 p.m. ET, Pac-12).
The Cougars deserve to be in the top half of the Top 25 after scoring September wins against Wisconsin and Oregon State. UCLA has the defense to slow down quarterback Cam Ward, a must-do in order to get back on track after dropping the Pac-12 opener against Utah.
First loss: vs. Clemson, Oct. 21.
The Tigers are still a formidable opponent despite two early losses and have been particularly dominant against the Hurricanes, winning the last four in this series by a combined score of 178-20. Yes, that's dominance.
First loss: at Georgia, Saturday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Kentucky dismantled Florida in glorious fashion but will find tougher sledding against the two-time defending national champions. Scoring the upset — this would be just the Wildcats' fourth win against the Bulldogs since 1990 — demands more from quarterback Devin Leary, who has yet to get going.
First loss: vs. LSU, Saturday (noon ET, ESPN).
Missouri's 5-0 start includes two close calls against Middle Tennessee and Memphis along with an upset of Kansas State on a record-setting field goal. This run ends this weekend against an LSU team motivated to turn the page on a debacle of a defensive performance against Mississippi.
First loss: at Wyoming, Saturday (8 p.m. ET, Fox).
The Bulldogs have built a case for being seen as the best team in the Group of Five. But the Cowboys are very tough to handle under the lights and at high altitude in Laramie, where they've already scored dramatic wins against Texas Tech and Appalachian State.
First loss: vs. Notre Dame, Saturday (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC).
Louisville has hit the ground running under new coach Jeff Brohm and is one of the early leaders to meet Florida State in the ACC championship game. While losing to Notre Dame won't impact that push, the Cardinals aren't ready as a team or program to take down the Fighting Irish.
First loss: at Boise State, Nov. 24.
The Falcons have dismantled three Mountain West foes and join Fresno State and Wyoming as the league's best teams. Boise State has largely had an answer for this offense, though, with five wins in the past six meetings.
First loss: vs. Georgia Southern, Oct. 14.
While this would qualify as an upset, Georgia Southern has been much more balanced on offense and done a very good job protecting the football outside of a six-turnover mess in the Eagles' one loss, to Wisconsin.
First loss: at Western Kentucky, Oct. 24.
Liberty has a tough trip to Jacksonville State on Oct. 10 to handle first, but look for the Flames' unbeaten ways to last no longer than a date with Conference USA favorite Western Kentucky two weeks later.
First loss: at North Carolina State, Saturday (2 p.m. ET, CW Network).
Marshall did beat Virginia Tech, which looks good on paper but doesn't mean much given the Hokies' mediocrity. (Not to say the Thundering Herd aren't on the rise under Charles Huff.) North Carolina State should get a spark from new quarterback MJ Morris and win by a touchdown or more.
First loss: at Ohio State, Saturday (noon ET, Fox).
Give Maryland credit for rolling through an easy September schedule that included three Power Five opponents, even if those were Virginia, Michigan State and Indiana. The Terrapins have hung tight with the Buckeyes in the past, but those games were at home. They're unlikely to win this one in Columbus.
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