NCAA tournament bubble watch: Where things stand as conference tournaments heat up

Only 32 spots are guaranteed for the NCAA men's tournament and those are reserved to conference tournament winners. When it comes to the 36 at-large bids, the week gives teams one last chance to prove why they do − or don't − belong in the field of 68.

With limited games left in conferences across the country, there's little room for error when it comes to teams on the bubble of March Madness, and they can pretty much be separated into three different tiers:

• Teams like Michigan State and Florida Atlantic who could be just fine having a dud in their conference tournaments and be in the tournament.
• Teams like Virginia and New Mexico who could just need one conference tournament win to secure a spot in the field.
• Teams like St. John's and Pittsburgh who may need multiple wins in their conference tournament to jump into the tournament bracket.

With each passing day, teams will begin to separate themselves from each other, with some conference having virtual bubble elimination games. After all, the theme of the season is survive and advance. Here's where teams on the bubble sit with Selection Sunday just a few days away.

American Athletic

Florida Atlantic

Record: 24-7 (14-4). NET: 34. Quad 1 record: 2-2.

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The Owls ended the season on a high note with three consecutive wins and enter the conference tournament as the No. 2 seed behind South Florida. Florida Atlantic doesn’t necessarily win the conference title to make the tournament. A win against Tulane or North Texas on Friday should be enough to get at least a tournament spot. 

Projection: No. 9 seed.

ACC

Virginia

Record: 22-9 (13-7). NET: 51. Quad 1 record: 2-6.

Virginia was able to capture the third seed in the ACC tournament to get the double-bye, but it’s by no means safe. The Cavaliers will need to defeat either Boston College or Clemson in its first game to assure a spot in the tournament. Another win could move them out of the First Four, but that would likely mean beating a Duke team it got destroyed by a few weeks ago.

Projection: No. 11 seed (last four in).

Wake Forest

Record: 19-12 (11-9). NET: 38. Quad 1 record: 2-5.

After a poor finish to the regular season, Wake Forest needs a strong showing in Washington, D.C. The Demon Deacons will need to beat Notre Dame on Wednesday, and then beat Pittsburgh in a big-time bubble matchup the following day to boost itself. If Wake Forest can presumably beat North Carolina in the semifinals, that might be the key to a tournament spot.

Projection: First four out.

Pittsburgh

Record: 21-10 (12-8). NET: 44. Quad 1 record: 2-6.

Pittsburgh is in a tough position because it's in the next four out territory while having the double-bye in the ACC tournament. Pittsburgh needs to win its quarterfinal matchup to jump Wake Forest and then make the tournament final to have a realistic shot of jumping other teams.

Projection: Next four out.

Big 12

Oklahoma

Record: 20-11 (8-10). NET: 42. Quad 1 record: 4-11.

A shaky end to the regular season with five Quad 1 losses in its last seven games has moved Oklahoma down the projected bracket. While not ideal, the Sooners won’t have to worry about making the tournament if they defeat TCU on Wednesday. A loss and there’s a chance they could fall into jeopardy.

Projection: No. 9 seed.

TCU

Record: 20-11 (9-9). NET: 40. Quad 1 record: 4-10,

TCU’s case is very similar to Oklahoma in that it also didn’t end the regular season on a great note, and coincidentally, have to face the Sooners in the second round of the Big 12 tournament. LIke Oklahoma, a win would assure an tournament berth, while a loss will put the Horned Frogs in uncomfortable territory. 

Projection: No. 10 seed.

Big East

Seton Hall

Record: 20-11 (13-7). NET: 62. Quad 1 record: 5-7.

The two wins to end the regular season moved Seton Hall out of the First Four while the Pirates were able to get the first-round bye in the Big East tournament. A defeat of St. John’s on Thursday would lock up a tournament spot, regardless of what else happens in the rest of the conference tournament.

Projection: No. 10 seed.

Villanova

Record: 17-14 (10-10) NET: 33 Quad 1 record: 4-10

The two missed opportunities to end the regular season didn’t move Villanova up, but they still remain one of the last four teams to make the NCAA tournament due to a strong non-conference schedule that includes wins against Texas Tech and North Carolina. The Wildcats have to play DePaul in the first round to set up a significant showdown against Marquette in the quarterfinals that may decide their fate.

Projection: No. 11 seed (last four in).

Providence

Record: 19-12 (10-10). NET: 63. Quad 1 record: 5-8.

Providence wasn’t able to secure a first-round bye in New York and will need an upset win to move into the projected field. The quest starts with beating Georgetown on Wednesday and then taking down Creighton the following day, which is something the Friars did in early February. 

Projection: First four out.

St. John’s

Record: 19-12 (11-9). NET: 39. Quad 1 record: 3-9.

Still on the outside looking in, St. John’s still has a chance to leapfrog other Big East teams in the bubble depending on what happens inside Madison Square Garden. A win against Seton Hall in the Big East quarterfinals is necessary, but if the Johnnies get to the Big East final, it could be hard to deny them a spot.

Projection: First four out.

Big Ten

Michigan State

Record: 18-13 (10-10). NET: 24. Quad 1 record: 3-8.

Despite the suspect record, the high NET ranking gives Michigan State some space in extending its active record of 25 consecutive tournament appearances. A win against Minnesota in the second round of the Big Ten tournament would certainly assure the Spartans' streak stays intact. 

Projection: No. 9 seed.

Nebraska

Record: 22-9 (12-8). NET: 37. Quad 1 record: 4-6.

Winners in six of its last seven games, Nebraska has been able to climb up the projected bracket to give itself some breathing room heading into the Big Ten tournament with a quarterfinal spot already secured. A loss wouldn’t be the end of the world for the Cornhuskers, but one win in Minneapolis should be more than enough to secure their place. 

Projection: No. 10 seed.

Iowa

Record: 18-13 (10-10). NET: 61. Quad 1 record: 3-8.

The Big Ten tournament second-round matchup between Iowa and Ohio State will be an elimination game for both teams. A subsequent meeting for the Hawkeyes against Illinois in the quarterfinals could be decisive for their prospects. 

Projection: First four out.

Ohio State

Record: 19-12 (9-11). NET: 55. Quad 1 record: 3-6.

A team suddenly alive again after ending the regular season on a four-game win streak, Ohio State will need to keep the momentum alive inside Target Center to continue to move toward a tournament spot. Beating Iowa and Illinois is needed, however, so the task isn't easy.  

Projection: Next four out.

Missouri Valley

Indiana State

Record: 28-6 (17-3.) NET: 29. Quad 1 record: 1-4.

Indiana State’s regular season is over after a disappointing loss to Drake in the Missouri Valley title game. So now the question is whether the Sycamores have a good enough resume to get in. The NET ranking is nice, but it doesn’t really have any impressive wins. Teams ahead of them will need to likely collapse this week in order for Indiana State have hope.

Projection: Next four out.

Mountain West

Colorado State

Record: 22-9 (10-8). NET: 36. Quad 1 record: 5-7

Colorado State was able to handle business last week and moved up the projected bracket as a result. While they have all the looks of a tournament team, the Rams will need to beat San Jose State in the first round of the Mountain West conference tournament to silence any doubt on Selection Sunday. 

Projection: No. 9 seed.

New Mexico

Record: 22-9 (10-8). NET: 28. Quad 1 record: 2-7.

The close loss to Utah State in the regular0season finale was a chance for the Lobos to move into a more comfortable spot. Now, they can’t afford losing in the first round of the Mountain West tournament to an Air Force team that beat them earlier this season. If advance and then beat Boise State in the quarterfinals, that might be enough to ensure the league gets six teams in the field.

Projection: No. 11 seed (last four in).

Pac-12

Colorado

Record: 22-9 (13-7). NET: 27. Quad 1 record: 2-5.

Colorado is red hot with six wins in a row and is in position to avoid playing in the First Four. A defeat of either Utah or Arizona State in the Pac-12 tournament quarterfinals should be enough to secure a spot, but making it to the championship game could move the Buffaloes further up the seed line.  

Projection: No. 10 seed.

SEC

Mississippi State

Record: 19-12 (8-10). NET: 41. Quad 1 record: 4-8.

Mississippi State needs to lock in after losses in a row have pushed them to being one of the last four teams in the tournament. Beating LSU is necessary to open up the SEC tournament, but awaiting them would be No. 1 seed Tennessee. As tall of a task it is, a win may be needed depending on teams behind them. 

Projection: No. 11 seed (last four in).

Texas A&M

Record: 18-13 (9-9). NET: 47. Quad 1 record: 5-6.

Texas A&M is back in the picture after being able to secure the No. 7 seed in the SEC tournament with three wins to close the regular season. But the work is far from over for the Aggies; they need to beat Ole Miss for the second time in less than a week and Kentucky the next day. Texas A&M might need to win more too.

Projection: Next four out.