Which NFL teams will crash playoff party? Ranking 18 candidates by likelihood

Among the multitudinous reasons for the NFL’s widespread popularity is the perpetual sense that new contenders will annually emerge to vie for the Super Bowl throne.

Every year since 1990, when the playoff field expanded from 10 teams to 12 – two more postseason slots were added in 2020 – at least four teams that didn’t reach the Super Bowl tournament in the prior season have qualified annually. In 2023, six made it after failing to do so in 2022. Over the past four years, the average has been nearly seven with a minimum of six new entries each time. The average year-over-year since 1990 is 5.85.

(For whatever it’s worth, six newcomers are projected to emerge in USA TODAY Sports’ recently released 2024 NFL regular-season record projections – including the Jets and Jaguars.)

Asked Wednesday if the Super Bowl is a realistic expectation following his disastrous, four-snap 2023 season, NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers didn’t hesitate.

"It has to be the goal," said the four-time league MVP, who believes New York’s roster is even better than last year’s highly touted one.

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"I mean, the beauty is, every single year there's eight to 12 teams maybe – probably less – but eight to 12 teams that could actually do it. And we are one of those eight to 12."

A year removed from an AFC South title, they’re not shying from expectations in Duval County, either.

"We expect to win, and the time’s now," Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence said Wednesday.

"We’ve kind of been lingering around a little bit the last couple of years, but this is our opportunity. And we need to take advantage of it."

Like the J-E-T-S and Jags, everyone has a clean slate in ’24. Here’s a ranking of the 18 teams that fell short of the playoffs last season – from most likely to least – in terms of their capability to crack the field this time:

1. New York Jets

A team that shares the longest playoff drought (13 seasons) in North America’s major pro sports leagues with the NHL’s Buffalo Sabres most definitely has the horsepower to summarily end it. The AFC East is arguably as wide open as it’s been this century, New York possessing as much (or more) talent as any team in the division … or outside of it. Did you know Breece Hall (1,585 yards) trailed only All-Pro Christian McCaffrey in yards from scrimmage by a running back in 2023 despite toiling for an offense without even subpar quarterback play? Despite the same hindrance, did you know only one team has allowed fewer yards than the Jets over the past two seasons? Or that WR Garrett Wilson is one of 18 players to have 1,000-yard receiving seasons each of the past two years despite the chaos he's dealt with behind center? It’s a long – yet still limited – way of saying that if Rodgers can simply stabilize this offense, the Jets should enjoy an extended flight. If he can produce something close to even an average Rodgers effort, the sky could be no limit.

2. Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow is back … even if his hair isn’t. But his return from wrist surgery is highly suggestive that a team which finished 9-8 in 2023, despite losing its quarterback for nearly half the season, is well positioned to chase its third division crown since 2021. Cincy again has to emerge from what’s probably the league’s toughest divisional pack while adjusting to life without departed OC Brian Callahan. But the weapons remain tip top, and DC Lou Anarumo has a reputation for flustering some of the NFL’s best passers.

3. Indianapolis Colts

With rookie HC Shane Steichen calling the shots – and plays – the offense took a quantum leap forward in 2023, scoring at least 20 points in nine consecutive games at one point … despite the extended absences of QB Anthony Richardson and 2021 All-Pro RB Jonathan Taylor. If the defense follows the lead of its deep and potentially dominant front, no one will want to face it. And with Steichen dialing in with all of his studs, the outlook seems low-key rosy for a team that was 9-8 last season and finished one win shy of the AFC South summit.

4. Atlanta Falcons

Once again, the NFC South appears to project as the league’s weakest, i.e. most winnable, division. And this time, the Falcons seem to have its strongest complement of quarterbacks after years of being deficient at football’s most critical position. Expect Kirk Cousins (and/or rookie Michael Penix Jr.?) to extract increased production from the first-round talent already stocked into the lineup … and simply pushing this group to nine wins might be enough to stick around a bit longer into January.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars

Perceived as the AFC South’s rising power a year ago, they collapsed after an encouraging 8-3 start – undermined by turnovers and injuries – yet, like Indy, still finished just a game back of the first-place Houston Texans in the divisional standings. Owner Shad Khan expects to be back in the playoffs and shelled out, somewhat to his chagrin, more than $350 million in new guaranteed money to nine players … while admitting he wants the franchise to be more into the draft-and-develop business. Regardless, whether or not Khan overpaid for players like WR Gabe Davis, DT Arik Armstead and even the hefty extension for Lawrence, this team has enough firepower to be back atop the division.

6. Chicago Bears

Following a 5-3 finish to last season, when the defense really surged, this has the look of a team that’s built to win immediately – the hotshot rookie quarterback with cost-controlled contract dropped into a roster that’s fairly well resourced with veterans in several key areas. Are expectations for No. 1 pick Caleb Williams a bit outsized? Perhaps. But another two or three wins seem perfectly reasonable given, since 2021, Mac Jones, Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud all led teams to postseason as rookie signal-callers.

7. New Orleans Saints

Though they haven’t been to postseason since 2020, it’s worth noting they’ve fallen short of qualifying by virtue of tiebreakers in two of the past three seasons. The biggest difference between this year’s team and the 2023 edition – on or off the field – is probably new OC Klint Kubiak, who plans to emphasize play-action and the run game now that former Sean Payton lieutenant and longtime OC Pete Carmichael Jr. has left the building after 15 seasons. That’s going to require far more production from RBs Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams and Co. But if it materializes, this division should be in play.

8. Los Angeles Chargers

New HC Jim Harbaugh is arguably the biggest addition any organization made this offseason. He comes with a reputation for quick turnarounds and inherits a team that’s underachieved relative to its talent for … ever? Jumping from 5-12 to wild-card team isn’t out of the question. But it's highly unlikely the Bolts end the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs eight-year (currently) reign atop the AFC West, and it will be only marginally easier to reach the playoffs in such a loaded conference.

9. Arizona Cardinals

Last season’s results, namely a 4-13 record, weren’t pretty. But the Cards were highly competitive most weeks and, after a 1-8 start, won three of their final eight games with QB Kyler Murray back in the lineup. With highly acclaimed first-round WR Marvin Harrison Jr. aboard, this offense could erupt – if the blocking holds up – and may need to frequently if the defense continues to lag behind. If things break right, a wild-card berth doesn’t seem outrageously far-fetched.

10. Washington Commanders

Though it happened in Houston last year, it’s rare for a first-year coach and rookie quarterback to drive a team into the playoffs. New HC Dan Quinn is a winner, insomuch as he’s consistently been affiliated with strong NFL teams in Seattle, Atlanta and Dallas for most of the past decade. But he’s going to need OC Kliff Kingsbury to get first-round QB Jayden Daniels up to speed quickly for Washington to survive its challenging early schedule.

11. Seattle Seahawks

The 12s don’t want to hear it – trust me – but this could be a one-step-back season before the ‘Hawks take two steps forward under rookie HC Mike Macdonald down the road. Defensively, they don’t have nearly the caliber of linebackers and safeties Macdonald relied on so heavily in Baltimore. And despite his desire that OC Ryan Grubb – he has no NFL experience – run the ball effectively, this team is currently built to throw … even though Geno Smith probably ranks fourth among the NFC West’s quarterbacks. None of this is to say that optimism and talent are lacking in the Pacific Northwest, but maybe let’s give it some time?

12. Minnesota Vikings

They might have the best non-quarterback in the league – and certainly the highest paid – in Justin Jefferson. But last season was a reminder that even All-Pro receivers are heavily dependent on quarterbacks who can deliver the ball consistently … and a team resetting behind center with journeyman Sam Darnold (59.7% career completion rate) and rookie J.J. McCarthy has plenty to prove offensively, especially so in a what’s shaping up as a brutal NFC North.

13. Tennessee Titans

New coach (Callahan), newish QB1 (Will Levis), new culture and new players – many of them pricey free agents. They’ll have to tune up quickly in Music City in Year 1 post-Vrabel/Henry/Tannehill in order to leapfrog any of the divisional rivals who seem superior – on paper – to the Titans. But be careful before discounting Callahan, who oversaw an offensive renaissance in Cincinnati, or his dad, legendary O-line coach Bill Callahan, who might not need all that many breaks to get the family business up and running in postseason.

14. Las Vegas Raiders

New QB Gardner Minshew II nearly guided the Colts to a division title in 2023. Second-year QB Aidan O’Connell was up and down in 2023, as many rookies tend to be. Whoever emerges as the starter likely won’t be sufficiently supported to lift a team in transition – once again – to its third playoff trip in the past two decades.

15. New York Giants

Their turn on the offseason edition of “Hard Knocks” might be the most compelling chapter about the 2024 G-Men. And as much as this year is clearly about re-evaluating QB Daniel Jones, who’s coming off ACL reconstruction, how fair will the assessment be after stripping him of RB Saquon Barkley? And how many victories are realistic for a team that’s exceeded six in a season twice in the past decade?

16. Carolina Panthers

Over the past three years, new HC Dave Canales has gotten something close to the best out of QBs Russell Wilson and Smith in Seattle and Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay. His new charge, Bryce Young, could hardly be worse than he was as an overmatched rookie last year in Charlotte. But even if Young is orders of magnitude better in 2024, the most compelling argument for the Panthers as a potential playoff outfit is that they’re members of what still appears to be the league’s least impressive division.

17. Denver Broncos

As expensive as it was financially and otherwise, cutting the cord with Wilson was the move that had to happen so Payton can try to propel this franchise forward on his terms. That now starts at Square One, a rookie quarterback (Bo Nix) likely to be charged with taking quite a few lumps amid extensive on-the-job training in 2024. A third-place finish would seem like a moral victory.

18. New England Patriots

As expensive as it was from a draft perspective, cutting the cord with Mac Jones was the move that had to happen so a new regime (and quarterback) can try to propel this franchise forward on its non-Belichick-ian terms. That now starts at Square One (or Two), a rookie quarterback (Drake Maye) likely to his lumps whenever his 2024 OJT commences. A third-place finish would seem like a moral victory.

Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.