Nightengale's Notebook: Why the Milwaukee Brewers are my World Series pick
CHICAGO – They are America’s best secret on a baseball diamond.
They are a small Midwest Town and darn proud of it.
There’s no Madison Avenue. No Rodeo Drive. The highways are filled with pick-ups and rusted station wagons.
They reside in baseball’s smallest market with a population of just 577,000, and only the 38th-largest TV market in the country just behind Greenville, S.C.
They are the Milwaukee Brewers.
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They also may be the last team standing when the month of October flips to November.
Sure, Atlanta is the heavy favorite. The Houston Astros have the glossy postseason resume. The Los Angeles Dodgers are filled with stars.
No matter.
Clip and save: I’m picking the Brewers to win their first World Series.
Really.
When you think about it, it’s really not that far-fetched.
The Brewers have the best starting rotation of any postseason team with Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta and Wade Miley.
They may have the best closer of any postseason team in All-Star Devin Williams.
They’ve got one of the greatest managers in the game in Craig Counsell.
And, let’s face it, these guys are fun to root for.
“We recognize that we’re the smallest market in the league, and it can be daunting when you head into the postseason," Brewers GM Matt Arnold told USA TODAY Sports, “but anything can happen in a short series.
“I do believe this is one of the deepest teams and strongest teams we’ve ever had.
“I think we have something really special here."
So, it’s not that crazy picking the Brewers to win it all?
“I’ll see you at the parade," Arnold joked.
Certainly, the Brewers have quietly been a model franchise.
They have reached the postseason in five of the past six seasons without having a payroll higher than 16th in baseball, ranking 20th this season at $118.7 million. Yep, a cool $235 million less than the New York Mets, who will be sitting at home.
This is the sixth consecutive year they have won at least 86 games in a full season, surpassed only by the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros, and their 572 victories since 2017 are the third-most in the National League.
They have become the gold standard of the NL Central, overtaking the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs for supremacy, winning more games than any team in the division since 2016, which was Counsell’s first full season.
“It’s fun in our division knowing that the Cubs and Cardinals are spending more than us," Counsell says, “and we’re beating them. I think every competitor looks to have a chip on their shoulder, and that’s what we do."
So, let other teams empty their checkbooks on the free-agent market and fill their roster with the biggest stars they can find.
And then let other teams look up at the Brewers at the end of the season, wondering how that reliable Toyota Prius once again finished ahead of that Porsche.
“There’s definitely a sweetness to this," says Brewers owner Mark Attanasio, a day after he watched his wife doused in a champagne and beer celebration in the Brewers’ clinching party. “I think we benefit at being a small-market team. People wake up on Labor Day and say, 'Hey, the Brewers have a baseball team.’
“But we always believed in ourselves here."
Certainly, they’ve made believers out of everyone else this season, too.
Chicago Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson eliminated the Brewers in the 2021 postseason when he played for Atlanta, and always admired the team from afar, but after playing against them 13 times this season, he understands the secret to their success.
“They just do a good job of understanding who they are," Swanson says. “When the season ends, you look up after Game 162, and say, 'How are they always in the mix?’ Well, they understand who they are, and they do everything well.
“When you have the arms and stuff they do, you’re always going to be in the game. It’s just a matter of time before the offense can score some runs. It’s not that they don’t have a talented offense, it’s just that they get contributions from so many different people.
“Not every team can be like them, but that’s just their formula, and it works for them."
Go ahead, you try to reach the playoffs with a .239 batting average, the worst of any playoff team, while producing the fewest total bases for any team in baseball outside of the 49-111 Oakland A’s.
“There’s nothing offensively where you go and play them and you're really scared of anything," Cubs manager David Ross says. "But they always have really good starting pitching, which is as good as it gets for me, and it seems like they’re in every game.
“They do a really nice job over there and Counsell does a great job."
Counsell, who grew up in Wisconsin as the son of Brewers front-office executive John Counsell, remembers crying along with every other Brewers fan sitting in the upper deck at Busch Stadium, watching the Brewers lose the 1982 World Series to the St. Louis Cardinals. He was at every game of the World Series, convinced they would win and believing they’d be back again.
Well, here we 41 years later, and the Brewers have yet to reach the World Series again.
If this really is Counsell’s final year with the club, what better way to go out?
Counsell and Attanasio agreed three weeks ago that they would not talk about a contract extension until after the season ends. While Counsell considered simply stepping away from the game for a year or two, he now plans to keep managing.
“Let’s get to the end of the season and then we’ll see what happens," Counsell said. “I’m going to listen to people, listen to the Brewers, and see where it takes me.
“I think there’s a lot left to happen before I have to make any decisions, but I want the next month to change my life."
Says Attanasio: “He’s intent on seeing all of his options. He deserves that. Of course, I want him to stay. He’s beloved in the state of Wisconsin."
Counsell, 53, a two-time World Series champion player, would love to make room for another championship ring. He’s proud to be a Brewer. He loves the fact that they’re in the postseason hunt every year, and even in the two seasons they didn’t reach the postseason, they fell just one game short.
“We’ve given ourselves a chance consistently year after year, and to win it now, would be incredible," Counsell says. “The biggest thing we have going for us now is our pitching. We have the pitching to last a bunch of series, starters we can treat equally, and we’re not relying on just two or three bullpen arms."
They’re showing how dangerous they can be, going 26-12 since Aug. 18, second-best to only the Baltimore Orioles in the last five weeks, putting their past pain behind them.
There’s no longer any talk about last year’s clubhouse meltdown when they traded All-Star closer Josh Hader to the San Diego Padres (“As you know, it wasn’t my decision," Attanasio says).
There are no hard feelings that David Stearns, their former president of baseball operations who stepped down to become a consultant this year, left to join the New York Mets for a lucrative five-year contract (“How many great top chefs stay in the same restaurant their whole lives?" Attanasio says).
Christian Yelich’s mysterious slump after his 2019 MVP season is now a distant memory.
“I know how difficult it is to get to the World Series," says Attanasio, who has seen the Brewers advance to seven postseason appearances in his 19-year tenure, ending a 26-year between 1982 and 2008. “But I try to enjoy the ride, and the anxiety. What’s rewarding is being consistently excellent. That’s the real challenge going forward.
“When I got here, all you saw is the 1982 banners. I was desperate to get a flag up or a sign at our stadium, and we finally did in ‘08. Now, we’re out of space. We can’t put any more division signs now. I love that."
They do have plenty of room, however, for that coveted World Series flag.
The Brewers truly believe it’s going to come one day.
“We’ve been here so many times," Woodruff told reporters in the champagne celebration, “I feel like it’s our time to get over the hump.
“We can do it."
Count me in.
Someone should hire Mike Shildt
The managerial carousel will be in full swing in a few days, which started when the San Francisco Giants fired Gabe Kapler, the first of about a half-dozen teams expected to change managers.
While there are plenty of qualified candidates, there’s one name out there it seems folks are forgetting.
Mike Shildt.
You remember the dude?
He’s the one who led the St. Louis Cardinals to three consecutive postseason appearances and has a .559 winning percentage (6th-highest since 1947 among managers with at least 450 games).
The one who won the NL Manager of the Year award.
The one whose 2021 team featured a record five Gold Glove winners and led the league with the fewest errors. The one whose team led baseball in defensive run efficiency, with 172 runs saved.
The one whose extensive background includes 13 years in player development and eight years as a minor league manager.
The one on the San Diego Padres coaching staff that every team in baseball should bring in for an interview if they’re actually serious about winning.
Shildt deserves to be sitting in a managerial chair in 2024.
Nightengale's MLB award picks
It looked like there could be some juicy battles down the stretch for baseball’s most prestigious individual awards, but now that the smoke is clear, the only real debate will be who wins the National League Manager of the Year award.
Here are the winners and runner-ups, most which will be landslide votes, that will be officially announced in November.
American League MVP: Shohei Ohtani, Angels; Runner-up: Corey Seager, Rangers
American League Cy Young: Gerrit Cole, Yankees; Runner-up: Sonny Gray, Twins.
American League Rookie of the Year: Gunnar Henderson, Orioles; Runner-up: Tanner Bibee, Guardians.
American League manager: Brandon Hyde, Orioles; Runner-up: Bruce Bochy, Rangers.
National League MVP: Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta; Runner-up: Mookie Betts, Dodgers
National League Cy Young: Blake Snell, Padres; Runner-up: Zac Gallen, D-backs.
National League Rookie: Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks; Runner-up Kodai Senga, Mets.
National League Manager: Skip Schumaker, Marlins; Dave Roberts, Dodgers.
Hawaii strong
The state of Hawaii is still in shock and mourning the devastating Maui wildfire that killed at least 97, knowing it will be years before there’s a sense of normalcy again, but for now, their youth baseball team is trying to comfort.
Their high-school senior All-Star team, Team Hawaii, travelled to Phoenix to play in the Arizona Senior Fall Classic, where they were welcomed by the Major League Baseball Players Association and Players Trust, with president Tony Clark and Chris Capuano, director of baseball operations, speaking to the team and their parents at their Scottsdale office.
The 41 players and coaching staff were provided lunch with goodie bags the first day, with a Q&A session with Clark, and treated to the Houston Astros-Arizona Diamondbacks game on Saturday with on-field access during batting practice. There were at least a dozen players who were watching their first major-league game in person.
“This meant the world to all of us," said Hawaii coach Duane Eldredge, who had seven cousins lose their homes during the fires. “It’s just such a great experience to be able to be with these former major leaguers, to listen to them, to hear their words of wisdom and advice, it’s huge."
Eldredge, whose late father is from Lahaina, said he’d be absolutely crushed if he were alive to witness the devastation from the fires.
“He’s passed," Eldredge said, his voice cracking, “but I’m kind of glad he didn’t have to see this."
Clark, the former All-Star first baseman who spent 15 years in the big leagues, advised the kids to “control the controllables, “be where your feet are" and “put something positive in the back at the end of the day," telling them they are more powerful that they think they are.
“The challenges that these young people and families have experienced," Clark said, “we are grateful to be here for them and provide an experience. ...
“I’m not a fan of cameras, but I can sit all day with mom and dad and the youngsters, and talk shop."
Around the basepaths
– San Diego Padres manager Bob Melvin and GM A.J. Preller have told friends and associates that it’s simply impossible for the two to co-exist in 2024 and that their meeting Monday with Padres’ ownership will not change their minds.
This is why the firing of Kapler provides an amicable way to end their ugly marriage.
The Padres can provide permission for the Giants to interview and hire Melvin, who spent 11 years managing in Oakland and three years working with Giants president Farhan Zaidi, and be off the hook for his $4 million salary in 2024. The Giants likely would provide Melvin a three-year contract for about $12 million if they hire him.
That way, Melvin will be ecstatic to be free of Preller and return to the Bay Area while Preller can promote bench coach Ryan Flaherty or perhaps coach Mike Shildt from their staff.
– The Padres are internally leaning towards trading All-Star outfielder Juan Soto, which would free up about $30 million – while trying to slash their payroll by about $50 million.
The Padres won’t get nearly the return that they sent to the Washington Nationals two years ago to acquire Soto, but they should get two top-15 prospects in a team’s farm system, besides freeing themselves an arbitration-record payday for Soto.
The Giants or the Boston Red Sox could be possible fits while scouts predict that he’ll be a first baseman or DH within two years.
– J.D. Martinez certainly won a huge bet on himself by signing his one-year, $10 million contract with the Dodgers. He hit 33 home runs, drove in 103 runs, and should be a lucrative multi-year contract this winter.
– Considering that the Texas Rangers have converted just 47.6% of their save opportunities this season, the lowest team percentatge by a team with a winning record since the 1971 Yankees, according to Stathead, executives are widely predicting that their next big free-agent expenditure will be signing Josh Hader.
– Cy Young winner Blake Snell, who knows that the Padres aren’t bringing him back, says he’ll forever be perplexed why the Padres underachieved perhaps more than any team in baseball history.
“The ultimate goal was playoffs and winning the World Series with these guys," Snell told reporters. “Looking back, when we’re all old, it’s going to be one that stings because I don’t know if I’ll ever play on a team this talented and this good."
– Congratulations to Greg Schulte, the brilliant and beloved radio voice of the Diamondbacks, who’s retiring after the season.
Schulte, who has done play-by-play for the D-backs since the organization was born, was honored Friday by having the radio booth named in his honor. Schulte, who has called nearly 4,000 Diamondbacks games, will be greatly missed and one day belongs in the broadcast wing of baseball’s Hall of Fame.
– It’s impossible to overstate what Skip Schumaker has done with the Marlins, leading his team to a major-league best 33-13 in one-run games, with 41 comeback victories. They have won six games this season when trailing by three or more runs after the seventh inning, the most in MLB history, according to OptaStats.
– The most stunning statistic in baseball this season?
The Colorado Rockies drew more than 2.5 million fans at Coors Field, averaging nearly 32,000 fans a game.
They drew 47,272 fans on Friday to watch the Rockies lose their 102nd game to the Minnesota Twins.
Can you imagine what would happen if the Rockies start winning again?
– Meanwhile, in San Francisco, the Giants drew their fewest fans since 1999 excluding the 2020-2021 COVID seasons. It has decreased every season since 2018.
Kapler paid the price, but it may also lead to a different organizational philosophy to rely less on platoons and the use of a more traditional pitching staff.
“We don’t view ourselves as a front office or as a coaching staff as being a system organization, whether it’s platooning or using openers,” Farhan Zaidi, president of baseball operations, told reporters. “We want to have a product that our fans are excited about, that our fans want to come to the ballpark to see. I recognize that. I think that’s what ownership wants to see.”
– This is the third time in the last four seasons the Boston Red Sox finished in last place in the AL East.
Chaim Bloom, president of baseball operations, is already out.
– Yankees starter Carlos Rodon’s season is mercifully over, allowing eight earned runs without recording a single out. His season ends with a 6.85 ERA while making just 14 starts over 64 ⅓ innings.
Not quite what the Yankees envisioned when they handed him a seven-year, $162 million contract last winter.
“It was terrible,” Rodon told reporters. “There’s not much else to say about it.”
– It’s hard to believe this is the first time since 1999 that Atlanta has the best record in baseball, giving them the home-field advantage throughout the postseason where they are 51-28 entering Saturday.
– Atlanta first baseman Matt Olson won’t win the NL MVP award this season but wow, what a year.
Olson leads the major leagues with a 136 RBI and a franchise-record 54 home runs.
No one else in baseball has more than 46 homers or 117 RBI.
“When you’re in the middle of a season, you don’t really think about it too much," Olson told reporters. “You just carry on. Maybe get into the offseason and enjoy a beer over it.”
– The Giants are expected to cut ties with hometown favorite Brandon Crawford at the season’s conclusion. Crawford likely will retire, but hasn’t officially made a decision.
Certainly, he’ll have a spot in the Giants’ Hall of Fame and perhaps a future in the organization.
He appeared in 1,654 games for the Giants, starting 1,528 games at shortstop.
– Fabulous move by the Detroit Tigers to make Miguel Cabrera a special assistant to Scott Harris, the Tigers’ president of baseball operations.
He joins Hall of Famer Alan Trammell, Willie Horton, Kirk Gibson, Lance Parrish and Jim Leyland as special assistants.
– Ronald Acuña Jr is now the only member of the 30/60, 40/50, 40/60 and 40/70 clubs.
Rickey Henderson had the most home runs any player with at least 70 stolen bases in a season when he hit 28 homers in 1986 with the Yankees.
Acuna has 41 homers.
– Interesting strategy to improve his performance next season by Pirates pitcher Johan Oviedo.
"I have to find a way to be more mad and selfish and mean," Oviedo told reporters. “When I pretend that I’m not nice, things go better. So, next year, I’m going to be a little more of a [expletive]."
Hey, whatever works, right?
– It’s hard to believe this is Terry Francona’s final day in a baseball uniform, but close friends believe that Francona, 64, will miss the game so much, it wouldn’t surprise them if he returns one day.
For now, he’ll be spending time recuperating with a shoulder replacement surgery and two hernia procedures scheduled this winter.
If he doesn’t return, what a Hall of Fame class it will be in three years when he is inducted along with manager Dusty Baker.
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