The U.S. men’s basketball team is not unbeatable. Perhaps a loss at the 2024 Paris Olympics is unlikely with LeBron James, Steph Curry, Kevin Durant and multiple other All-Stars. But not impossible.
The U.S. lost to France at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics (but still won gold), and the Americans did not medal at the 2023 FIBA World Cup.
Of the 11 other teams at the Summer Games, a few — Germany, Canada, Serbia, Australia — can beat the U.S. in a one-game scenario playing a 40-minute game under FIBA rules (slightly different than the NBA game) against teams with more continuity. Anything is possible, international basketball expert Fran Fraschilla said.
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The U.S. is heavily favored to win gold in Paris (it would be its fifth consecutive) with a roster that is drawing comparisons to some of the other great U.S. Olympic teams, including the 1992 Dream Team and 2008 Redeem Team.
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Here are men's Olympic basketball power rankings, a scouting report from Fraschilla on each team and odds to win gold for each team:
Fran Fraschilla scouting report: “Overwhelming talent but playing a different sport. We've seen that, especially as the world is caught up talent-wise, FIBA rules make a big difference when the United States takes on the other best teams in the world. I compare FIBA rules and NBA rules to Spanish and Portuguese. They are two languages that sound the same, but they're completely different. When the United States has struggled in recent years, in part it's because I don't think they understand the difference in the rules in terms of how fast the game goes, the smaller court and the emphasis on 3-point shooting. It's probably a more physical game, and keep in mind this is never a best-of-seven. This is one shot, 40 minutes. Anything can happen.”
Fran Fraschilla scouting report: “Canada runs into the same issue that the United States does in that because they have 11 NBA players, there's not the normal continuity you would see from a FIBA team from other parts of the world. In one sense, the depth of NBA talent is a major plus. In the other sense, when you watched USA play Canada in Las Vegas, it really looked like more of an NBA game than it did a FIBA game. There's nobody outside the United States that has a better group of guards than Canada. I think they're the second-best team in this tournament because of the depth of NBA talent. But I'll get back to what I said. I think their lack of continuity could be an impediment.”
Fran Fraschilla scouting report: “There'll be an excitement of France playing on their home turf. There will be a psychological advantage to being the host country at the Olympics. Now you got some guys with proven experience like Gobert, Fournier and Batum and let's throw the Nando de Colo in there. Then you're mixing it with some young future NBA stars like Wemby and (Bilal) Coulibaly. I don't think they have the backcourt play to sustain a win over Team USA if it came down to it. But they're certainly capable of medaling given the roster they have and the experience they have.”
Fran Fraschilla scouting report: “With Germany, it's continuity. It's a group of guys who have played together for a number of years now. And now the difference is unlike 10 to 15 years ago: Many of these guys actually happen to be NBA players. So the idea that that there's any kind of intimidation, it goes out the window. They have the confidence because they've done this before. They pretty much ran the U.S. off the court in the World Cup. And so coming off a gold medal (at the 2023 World Cup), they’re playing a FIBA game that they know better than the United States.”
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Fran Fraschilla scouting report: “This is not a vintage Serbia team we've seen in the past. This is a Serbia team that is certainly well-coached, well-schooled. They play smart together, and they have arguably one of the two or three best players in the world (Jokic). So, they are dangerous. But the key for Serbia is do they have enough up and down the roster to contend for a medal? When they play the United States, Serbia will know how to control the tempo in order to take it from 70 possessions to 55 or 60.”
Fran Fraschilla scouting report: “They have the most continuity of any of the teams in this tournament as far as FIBA basketball. And remember, they're coming off a very emotional 2021 in Tokyo because it was the first time they medaled. Coach (Brian) Goorjian and his staff know international basketball as well as anybody in this tournament. They have a healthy combination of talent and continuity. And I would throw in toughness because they're a very tough cerebral team.”
Fran Fraschilla scouting report: “The golden generation of Ricky (Rubio), the Gasols (Pau, Marc), Rudy (Fernandez), and the others has passed. And the problem for Spain is that they are in the group of death. They're capable of stealing a bronze. I just think it's going to be A) very difficult to get out of the group of death and B) to make a lot of noise if they get to the quarterfinals.”
Fran Fraschilla scouting report: “Is Giannis good enough to get them out of the group of death? Barely. I'm not sure there's much excitement for them going far in knockout play if they get there. Now do I think they'll get out of the group of death? My guess is that they will not. I wouldn't count on it based on the overall roster that they have. But when you have one of the three or four best players in the world in a tournament like this …”
Fran Fraschilla scouting report: “Their best player happens to be a guy who used to be two years away from being two years away. And he's no longer that, at least on the international scene. Marcelinho is 41, and he’s still going strong in Spain’s ACB. They just don't have a lot of firepower. They're no longer the team of (Leandro) Barbosa and Nene and (Tiago) Splitter. This is a different generation of Brazilians, and by and large it's an inexperienced team.”
Fran Fraschilla scouting report: "It's a scrappy team. They beat Lithuania on their home court (to make the Olympics). Give them credit. They play with great spirit, and they'll play hard against the United States in pool play. It would really take a Herculean effort to beat the U.S. Now having said that, I say Herculean, but it's not out of the realm of possibility that they could get out of the group. But they'll have a hard time getting out of group playing and getting past Serbia.”
Fran Fraschilla scouting report: “They don't have a lot. Obviously, Rui and Yuta have NBA experience. There's really not much there other than the fact that at least in group play, they can be a nuisance to Germany and France and Brazil. But I don't see them getting out of the group.”
Fran Fraschilla scouting report: “The coolest thing about South Sudan is the indication that African basketball is slowly but surely spreading around continent. This country has been through so much with its civil war, and the fact that they are going to represent Africa is a very big deal. This is a team bereft of NBA talent, but that does not diminish the effort they've made to represent Africa in Paris. It's an incredible accomplishment and I think they’ll be a fan favorite when they take the court.”
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