Opinion: Florida celebrating Ole Miss loss to Kentucky? It brings Lane Kiffin closer to replacing Billy Napier

• If Florida plans to pursue Lane Kiffin if it fires Billy Napier, then Kiffin's loss to Kentucky actually works in the Gators' favor.
• Mark Stoops would be an upgrade over Billy Napier, too, and he'd probably take the job.
• Kirby Smart shouldn't panic over Georgia loss, but he should be concerned.

While Mark Stoops got choked up after Kentucky’s 20-17 upset of then-No. 5 Mississippi, more than a few Florida Gators fans probably felt strong emotions, too.

Florida fans who crave Lane Kiffin as their coach need the Rebels to a lose a few games between now and Thanksgiving. It’s a fine line: Win enough to still look desirable, but lose enough for Ole Miss to miss the College Football Playoff and make Kiffin wonder whether he’s hit his ceiling with the Rebels and ought to uproot and resettle in The Swamp.

Kiffin admires Steve Spurrier, who remains the coaching standard at Florida, and his offensive acumen and ability to needle adversaries make him a kindred spirit.

“It's his personality, and it's how he walks on the sideline. It's those great offenses and all those great receivers and quarterbacks,” Kiffin said of Spurrier 15 years ago.

The Rebels had none of that Spurrier swagger Saturday. Stoops bottled up Kiffin’s system. The Wildcats’ defensive front owned the Rebels’ offensive line. Kentucky's offense played keep-away while mounting long drives, while Mississippi's offensive display was so offensive it would’ve had the Head Ball Coach slamming his visor.

The Wildcats created and received more than a few breaks, too. They were 3 of 3 on fourth downs. Brock Vandagriff hit Barion Brown for a 63-yard completion on fourth down on the Wildcats’ go-ahead touchdown drive.

Kiffin coached more cautiously than usual. He went on just two fourth downs. Twice, Ole Miss punted on fourth-and-2 near midfield in the fourth quarter while protecting a one-score lead. Kiffin trusted his defense. That worked, until it didn’t.

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Kentucky’s winning score occurred on a fumble recovery. When Ole Miss defensive back Trey Washington dislodged the ball from Gavin Wimsatt’s hands, it shot straight into the mitts of Wildcats tight end Josh Kattus, who stepped into the end zone.

Then, Caden Davis, the Rebels’ typically reliable kicker, hooked his 48-yard field goal that would have tied the game.

“Very discouraging, disappointing,” Kiffin said of the loss.

Disappointing enough to consider a change if the Rebels don’t make the playoff?

Even a 10-2 record might leave Ole Miss on shaky playoff footing, because it plays one of the SEC’s weaker schedules, although LSU, Georgia and Oklahoma remain tricky games.

It would be easy to pile on Kiffin after the most surprising loss of his tenure, but Kentucky’s defense is stout enough to trouble SEC opponents. We saw that earlier this season when Georgia slipped past the Wildcats 13-12.

Overall, Kiffin’s Ole Miss tenure remains a hit, with 33 victories since the start of the 2021 season. He’s fizzled in big games against Alabama and Georgia, but who hasn’t?

It's hard to imagine Florida hiring a better coach if it fires Billy Napier.

Kiffin’s got it good at Ole Miss. He doesn’t face the pressure of a blue-blood job, and yet he’s compensated at a clip of $9 million. The money doesn’t just flow into his pocket, it pours into the Rebels’ NIL collective, too.

Although exact dollars and cents of a collective’s ledger are not subject to public disclosure, those around the industry understand Ole Miss to pack a punch in the NIL space. It shows in how the “Portal King” annually stockpiles an impressive haul of transfers.

If the Rebels fail to make the playoff, though, after this massive investment, it suggests Kiffin hit his ceiling in Oxford. Of course, he’d need to rebuild Florida’s roster and invigorate its NIL arm, which has lagged behind SEC peers.

Would Kiffin’s ceiling really be higher at Florida? That’s debatable.

Would Kiffin, with visions of Spurrier in his head, think his ceiling would be higher at Florida?

Yeah, he might think that.

What about Mark Stoops for Florida?

Now, let’s consider the coach who won the game in Oxford.

Stoops has beaten Florida four times while at Kentucky, including the past three years. Saturday’s triumph ranks as the signature victory of his 12-year tenure.  

Florida could do worse than Stoops, who’d probably crawl through every Florida marsh to get to Gainesville after repeatedly bemoaning his lack of support at Kentucky.

It did do worse when it hired Napier.

Like Kiffin, Stoops enjoys a rich salary ($9 million) without national championship demands, but also without national championship possibility.

Would he value opportunity over security? Stoops flirted with Texas A&M a year until Aggies supporters shot down a trial balloon of that idea.

The trouble I have with the idea of Stoops at Florida: He’d be a defensive coach at a program that expects to not only win, but to be entertained with touchdowns.

Spurrier and Urban Meyer set a high bar for quarterback development. Stoops’ success comes in spite of having never developed a top-end SEC quarterback.

He’s a steady hand, but he’s not quite reached the heights Kiffin took Ole Miss to last season. He’s never coached a program with Florida’s expectations.

Either coach would be an upgrade over Napier, but if we refrain from becoming victims of the moment, we see that Kiffin offers Florida more of the style those fickle fans crave and a better chance for regaining an elite perch.

Here’s what else I’m pondering in this “Topp Rope” view of college football:

Are Georgia’s playoff hopes in trouble?

Kirby Smart showed no sense of panic after Georgia's 41-34 loss to Alabama. Why should he? College football, at its core, remains a game of talent assembly, and Smart assembled more than most.

He should, though, be concerned, because seven of the past eight quarters, the Bulldogs have been rubbish on offense. Quarterback Carson Beck regressed his past two starts. Georgia’s offensive line and ground game got overwhelmed by two straight SEC opponents.

Georgia’s schedule features a few more landmines. Games remain against Texas, Tennessee and Ole Miss. The first and third of those games are on the road.

The Bulldogs are talented enough to recover, but flawed enough to finish 9-3.

Smart brushed aside his 1-6 record against Alabama as being no worse than other coaches. That’s true, but Smart enjoys a better roster than most of his peers.

Alabama isn’t his problem for the moment, though. If Georgia keeps playing like it did the past two games, it won’t have to worry about facing Alabama for the rest of this season.

Peep the top of the Big 12 standings

Raise your hand if you had Brigham Young, Colorado and Texas Tech as being the only Big 12’s only teams 2-0 in conference play after the season’s first month. Anyone? Anyone?

Iowa State, Arizona and West Virginia also are undefeated in conference play, although those three each have played just one conference game. Meanwhile, the Big 12’s preseason frontrunners (Utah, Oklahoma State and Kansas State) have combined for four conference losses.

Utah and K-State remain playoff hopefuls, while Mike Gundy’s Cowboys appear lost, because they can’t play defense. The Cowboys allowed 559 yards while getting whupped by K-State on Saturday.

In such an unpredictable conference race, a one-bid playoff outcome becomes more and more likely while teams beat up on each other. That means the Big 12 schedule will be full of potential playoff elimination games between now and December. Who says the expanded playoff stripped the regular season of drama?

Three and out

1. Hugh Freeze probably thinks that if Auburn played Oklahoma nine more times, it would beat the Sooners nine times. Trouble for Freeze is, he keeps losing games that are played on the field rather than in his mind. His Tigers squandered an 11-point fourth-quarter lead in a shocking 27-21 loss. Freeze is 8-10 on the Plains. His pitch toward receiving a third season is a recruiting class ranked No. 4 nationally in the 247Sports Composite. If the class begins to fracture, Auburn has no reason to retain Freeze, other than his buyout. And, as we know, a big buyout doesn’t stop Auburn from firing coaches.

2. Folks, Indiana is 5-0, and it’s not just the record, it’s the score differential. The Hoosiers own five lopsided victories behind first-year coach Curt Cignetti. They’re not scheduled to play a ranked opponent until November games against Michigan and Ohio State. Hold off on turning your attention to basketball season, Hoosiers fans, and smoke ‘em if you got ‘em with Coach Cigs.

3. The latest "Topp Rope" 12-team playoff projections: Texas (SEC), Ohio State (Big Ten), Kansas State (Big 12), Miami (ACC), UNLV (Group of Five), plus at-large selections Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Penn State, Oregon, Southern California and Clemson. Next up: Missouri, Ole Miss, Notre Dame.

Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's national college football columnist. Email him at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.

The "Topp Rope" is his football column published throughout the USA TODAY Network.

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