As NASCAR playoffs loom, who's in, who's on the bubble and who faces a must-win scenario

The NASCAR Cup Series postseason inches ever closer, and the remaining playoff berths up for grabs have dwindled.

Only four races remain until the 10-race playoffs begin on Sept. 3 at Darlington Raceway, which means there are only four chances left for winless drivers to lock up a spot. Sixteen drivers will make the playoffs, and 12 berths have now been claimed following Sunday’s race at Richmond Raceway.

It truly has become a win-and-you're-in scenario now, but drivers can also still point their way into the playoffs – presuming there are repeat winners in the next four weeks. If less than 16 drivers win races this season, then the remaining playoff berths would go to the top winless drivers with the most points in the standings.

A look at what's next, who’s already in, who’s feeling comfortable, who’s on the bubble and who needs a win to have a shot to race for the 2023 championship:

The four remaining regular-season races

Sunday, Aug. 6: Michigan International Speedway (2-mile oval)

• Most recent winner: Kevin Harvick (Aug. 7, 2022)

Sunday, Aug. 13: Indianapolis Motor Speedway (2.439-mile road course)

• Most recent winner: Tyler Reddick (July 31, 2022)

Sunday, Aug. 20: Watkins Glen International (2.45-mile road course)

• Most recent winner: Kyle Larson (Aug. 21, 2022)

Saturday, Aug. 26: Daytona International Speedway (2.5-mile oval)

• Most recent winners: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (Feb. 19, 2023); Austin Dillon (Aug. 28, 2022)

Drivers who have clinched playoff berths

These are the 12 full-time drivers who have won races this season (with regular-season points and playoff points in parentheses).

• William Byron, Hendrick Motorsports — 4 wins (701 overall points, 22 playoff points)
• *Martin Truex Jr., Joe Gibbs Racing — 3 wins (744, 18)
• *Kyle Busch, Richard Childress Racing — 3 wins (648, 17)
• Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing — 2 wins (705, 14)
• *Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports — 2 wins (619, 13)
• Christopher Bell, Joe Gibbs Racing — 1 win (653, 7)
• Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing — 1 win (626, 10)
• Ryan Blaney, Team Penske — 1 win (614, 8)
• *Joey Logano, Team Penske — 1 win (609, 8)
• Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing — 1 win (602, 9)
• Chris Buescher, Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing — 1 win (598, 6)
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr., JTG Daugherty Racing — 1 win (514, 5)

*-Truex (2017), Busch (2015, 2019), Larson (2021) and Logano (2018, 2022) have all won championships.

Drivers sitting comfortable in points

These drivers have not won in 2023 but are likely to make the playoffs on points unless we have more than two new winners in the last four races.

• Kevin Harvick, Stewart-Haas Racing (634 points, 1 playoff point) — The 2014 champion, who has announced he is retiring from full-time racing at the end of the season, currently sits sixth in the regular-season standings and is 182 points above the cut line (the driver currently 17th in the standings).
• Brad Keselowski, Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing (603, 3) — The 2012 champion saw his teammate Chris Buescher clinch a playoff berth Sunday at Richmond. Keselowski sits 11th in the regular-season standings and is 151 points above the cut line.

Drivers on the playoff bubble

These drivers have not won a race this season, but presuming there are no new winners in the last four races, two of these drivers have a good chance to make the playoffs of points.

• 15. Bubba Wallace, 23XI Racing (506 points, 0 playoff points) — A race winner each of the last two seasons, Wallace sits 54 points above the cut line and is in prime position to make the playoffs for the first time.
• 16. Michael McDowell, Front Row Motorsports (470, 0) — Sitting 18 points above the cut line, McDowell has his best track coming up in the regular-season finale. He won the 2021 Daytona 500 and has three top-five finishes at Daytona International Speedway.
• 17. Ty Gibbs, Joe Gibbs Racing (452, 0) — The top rookie this season, Gibbs is 18 points below the cut line. He scored his first career top-10 last season at Michigan as a part-time Cup driver.
• 18. AJ Allmendinger, Kaulig Racing (448, 0) — The veteran racer could be the winless driver with the best chance of capturing one of the remaining races. While Allmendinger sits 22 points below the cut line, the road course ace has won at two of the next four tracks: Indianapolis (2021) and Watkins Glen (2014).
• 19. Daniel Suarez, Trackhouse Racing (436, 0) — A playoff driver last season, Suarez's lone Cup Series win has come on a road course – at Sonoma in 2022. He currently sits 34 points below the cut line.
• 20. Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports (430, 1) — While it might seem shocking to see the 2020 champion here, Elliott's position is due in part to missing seven races this season (six for injury, one for a suspension). NASCAR's most popular driver sits 40 points below the cut line.
• 21. Alex Bowman, Hendrick Motorsports (428, 0) — Another surprise to be outside the top 20, Bowman missed three races this season while recovering from an injury. A playoff driver each of the past five years, he currently sits 42 points below the cut line.

Notable drivers who can only make playoffs with a win

• 22. Austin Cindric, Team Penske (406 points, 1 playoff point) — Sitting 64 points below the cut line, Cindric has not been to victory lane since the season-opening 2022 Daytona 500.
• 24. Aric Almirola, Stewart-Haas Racing (384, 1) — Sitting 86 points below the cut line, Almirola has not been to victory lane since the summer 2021 race at New Hampshire.
• 28. Erik Jones, Legacy Motorsports (336, 0) — Sitting 134 points below the cut line, Jones last won the 2022 playoff opener at Darlington, though he was not a playoff driver.
• 29. Austin Dillon, Richard Childress Racing (323, 0) — Sitting 147 points below the cut line, Dillon seeks to repeat his feat from last season when he won the regular-season finale at Daytona to make the playoffs.
• 31. Chase Briscoe, Stewart-Haas Racing (283, 0) — Sitting 187 points below the cut line, Briscoe, a playoff driver last season, has not won since the March 13, 2022 race at Phoenix.