As the 2023 college football season nears the finish line, the number of opportunities to radically alter the national championship picture as we know it is growing vanishingly small.
There aren’t likely to be many true surprises on the Week 12 schedule, but there should be some games worth watching just the same. We’ll rate our top six choices, with the usual disclaimer that viewers should always keep an eye on the scoreboard for possible surprise developments elsewhere.
The lineup includes a top-10 showdown that is the clear top choice as Week 12’s can’t-miss contest. There’s a second Top 25 matchup that will probably be less suspenseful, so we actually rate it third behind a more important contest in the crowded Big 12. In the interest of full disclosure, there is a third ranked encounter between No. 16 Utah and No. 22 Arizona in Tucson, which has tremendous entertainment potential but is alas only available on the largely invisible Pac-12 Network.
With all that out of the way then, let’s get on to the matchups.
Time/TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC.
Why watch: Washington ga mes have been appointment viewing of late. The Huskies, not unlike TCU a year ago, keep finding ways to win close contests. They’re probably in for another one here in Corvallis, where the Beavers look to throw the Pac-12 race into chaos. There’s no doubting QB Michael Penix Jr.’s ability to deliver in the clutch, but his INT count is up to seven on the season as he has been forced into must-score mode on a weekly basis. The Beavers have multiple takeaway threats with a total of 12 picks among them, but LB is the unit’s centerpiece. Oregon State QB D.J. Uiagalelei hasn’t been as accurate as Penix, but he does have RB Damien Martinez to help him exploit the Huskies’ defensive front that has been mighty leaky of late. Washington’s saving grace has also been takeaways, with CB Mishael Powell owning a pair of the team’s 11 picks.
Why it could disappoint: It couldn’t possibly, could it? The Beavers have played their share of nail-biters as well, with their two losses each by just a field goal. Either team could conceivably get buried under an avalanche of mistakes, but that seems highly unlikely. Let’s enjoy this one, for what might be the last time in a long while.
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Time/TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS.
Why watch: The SEC championship game is set, but the Bulldogs nevertheless want to make sure their record remains unblemished when they get there to meet Alabama. The Volunteers have for the most part won the games they were expected to this year but haven’t produced the splash that last season’s group managed. Tennessee’s offense understandably took a step back due to its extensive personnel losses, though QB Joe Milton has had some good moments. He’ll need to play the game of his life to keep up with the Georgia attack that has found a new gear with QB Carson Beck gaining confidence and with key playmakers now healthy. TE Brock Bowers returned from an ankle procedure last week and WR Ladd McConkey appears to be at full speed as well.
Why it could disappoint: It probably will if Georgia plays with the same business-like intensity it displayed last week against Ole Miss. The Vols have played better on their home field but were thoroughly outclassed at Missouri a week ago.
Time/TV: 8 p.m. ET, Fox.
Why watch: Texas is alone atop the Big 12 and is the league’s lone playoff candidate. But the Longhorns nearly let TCU hang around too long a week ago. Having survived, they’ll need a more complete effort as they visit the Cyclones, who are still in the mix for the Big 12 title themselves. The Longhorns’ last trip to Ames in 2021 didn’t go well for them, but the good news for Texas last week was QB Quinn Ewers looked good in his return from a shoulder injury. It wasn’t all positive for Texas, however, as RB Jonothan Brooks suffered a season-ending knee injury, which will leave the ground game in the hands of freshman C.J. Baxter. LB Caleb Bacon has emerged as a disruptive force for the Cyclones. Iowa State QB Rocco Becht has improved his completion rate to a respectable 62.1%, with WRs Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel serving as the main targets. He’ll need to steer clear of Longhorns’ edge rushers Ethan Burke and Barryn Sorrell.
Why it could disappoint: The Cyclones are as scrappy as they come, but Texas should enjoy an overall talent advantage. Don’t turn away too soon though, as the Longhorns’ inability to put teams away could crop up once again.
Time/TV: Noon ET, ABC.
Why watch: The Cardinals look to end any suspense in the ACC and secure their spot opposite Florida State in the championship game with a road win. A Louisville loss would leave the door open for North Carolina, though neither of the Tar Heels’ last two games are gimmes (more on that below). None of this matters to the Hurricanes, who would like to snap a two-game skid and salvage a somewhat disappointing campaign. Though Louisville coach Jeff Brohm is a former QB himself, his offense this year is at its best when RBs Jawhar Jordan and Isaac Guerendo, who have 1,468 rushing yards and 18 TDs between them, are finding holes. Miami’s secondary featuring DB Kamren Kinchens can be dangerous, so Cardinals QB Jack Plummer will have to make good decisions if he does have to throw the ball. Hurricanes QB Tyler Van Dyke will return to the starting lineup after Emory Williams sustained a nasty arm injury late in the loss to Florida State. WR Xavier Restrepo is the most frequent target, but deep threat Jacolby George will also have to get involved. Louisville DE Ashton Gillotte could make Van Dyke’s job even more difficult.
Why it could disappoint: Miami’s defense has been good enough to keep it in most games, but if the offense bogs down again as it did at North Carolina State a couple of weeks ago, the Cardinals could take charge early. A blowout by the Hurricanes is less likely, though ball security can be a concern for Louisville at times.
Time/TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
Why watch: The Tar Heels’ long-shot bid to reach the ACC championship game might be gone by the time they kick off here in Death Valley. They’ll be gone for sure if they can’t come away with a win, and Clemson has looked a lot more like Clemson in its last two outings. Tigers QB Cade Klubnik still doesn’t have much explosive potential from his receiving group, but RBs Phil Mafah and a now healthy Will Shipley have cranked up the ground assault. That could be bad news for the Tar Heels, who are giving up over four yards per rushing attempt. UNC QB Drake Maye needed everything in his bag to get by Duke last week, and he’ll again need help from workhorse RB Omarion Hampton to keep the Tigers’ active D-line at bay.
Why it could disappoint: There are a couple of possibilities. A close finish would probably mean a low-scoring affair, which has been the winning formula for this year’s version of the Tigers but might not make for an aesthetically pleasing game. The Tar Heels might be able to remove any suspense with a fast start, but that seems less likely in Death Valley.
Time/TV: Noon ET, Fox.
Why watch: With their Penn State test passed, the Wolverines have one final hurdle before Ohio State comes to Ann Arbor. The Terrapins played well for a half in their own encounter with the Buckeyes a month ago, but since then they’ve struggled with consistency on both sides of the ball. Fortunately, Maryland was able to bank its sixth win last week at Nebraska to secure bowl eligibility, but shutting down Michigan will be a much tougher assignment. Wolverines RB Blake Corum leads the nation with 18 rushing TDs, but QB J.J. McCarthy can move the ball by air effectively. Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa has to throw it a lot more by necessity, so any ground support RB Roman Hemby can provide would be helpful.
Why it could disappoint: It almost certainly will if we’re being honest. Michigan’s overall scoring margin remains a hefty 31.5 points a game on average, and the Terrapins don’t generally enjoy an appreciable home-field advantage. Fans of the Wolverines might be in the majority.
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